Trader consensus favors a 19°C high in Tel Aviv on March 24 at 32% implied probability, propelled by the latest Israel Meteorological Service and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting peaks near 19-20°C amid mild southerly winds and partial cloud cover. High uncertainty spreads odds evenly across 15-23°C due to fluctuating sea breeze strength, which can suppress diurnal heating by 2-3°C, versus potential föhn-like warming from offshore flows. Historical March 24 highs average 20°C with ±3°C variability from synoptic shifts; recent GFS runs diverge on northerly intrusions risking 16°C or drier air enabling 22°C+. Traders eye hourly updates from official models for resolution cues.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 24?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 24?
19°C 33%
20°C 22%
18°C 18%
16°C 17%
13°C or below
2%
14°C
2%
15°C
15%
16°C
17%
17°C
17%
18°C
18%
19°C
32%
20°C
22%
21°C
9%
22°C
12%
23°C or higher
10%
19°C 33%
20°C 22%
18°C 18%
16°C 17%
13°C or below
2%
14°C
2%
15°C
15%
16°C
17%
17°C
17%
18°C
18%
19°C
32%
20°C
22%
21°C
9%
22°C
12%
23°C or higher
10%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 20, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors a 19°C high in Tel Aviv on March 24 at 32% implied probability, propelled by the latest Israel Meteorological Service and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting peaks near 19-20°C amid mild southerly winds and partial cloud cover. High uncertainty spreads odds evenly across 15-23°C due to fluctuating sea breeze strength, which can suppress diurnal heating by 2-3°C, versus potential föhn-like warming from offshore flows. Historical March 24 highs average 20°C with ±3°C variability from synoptic shifts; recent GFS runs diverge on northerly intrusions risking 16°C or drier air enabling 22°C+. Traders eye hourly updates from official models for resolution cues.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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