Trader consensus heavily favors a high of 16°C in Milan on March 20, with 64% implied probability, driven by ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models converging on mild conditions under a high-pressure ridge over northern Italy. These projections align with recent runs showing daytime highs stabilizing around 16°C amid southerly flows advecting warmer Mediterranean air, deviating slightly above the March climatological average of 14-15°C. Lower odds for 17°C (15%) and 15°C (12.5%) reflect model spread from minor cold fronts, while extremes like 20°C+ (<1%) remain improbable given stable upper-air patterns. Updated soundings from ARPA Lombardia reinforce this outlook, with no signals of abrupt shifts before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Milán el 20 de marzo?
¿La temperatura más alta en Milán el 20 de marzo?
16°C 68%
17°C 16%
15°C 8%
18°C 3.4%
$48,286 Vol.
$48,286 Vol.
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
2%
15°C
8%
16°C
68%
17°C
16%
18°C
3%
19°C
1%
20°C o más
<1%
16°C 68%
17°C 16%
15°C 8%
18°C 3.4%
$48,286 Vol.
$48,286 Vol.
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
2%
15°C
8%
16°C
68%
17°C
16%
18°C
3%
19°C
1%
20°C o más
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 2:26 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors a high of 16°C in Milan on March 20, with 64% implied probability, driven by ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models converging on mild conditions under a high-pressure ridge over northern Italy. These projections align with recent runs showing daytime highs stabilizing around 16°C amid southerly flows advecting warmer Mediterranean air, deviating slightly above the March climatological average of 14-15°C. Lower odds for 17°C (15%) and 15°C (12.5%) reflect model spread from minor cold fronts, while extremes like 20°C+ (<1%) remain improbable given stable upper-air patterns. Updated soundings from ARPA Lombardia reinforce this outlook, with no signals of abrupt shifts before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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