Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts drive trader optimism for a mild high in Warsaw on March 24, projecting peaks of 12-14°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge channeling warm Atlantic air advection northward. This positions 13°C or higher (42.5% implied probability) as the frontrunner, outpacing 12°C (23.5%) and lower bins, against Warsaw's March climatological average high of about 9°C. Recent model updates reflect a slight warming trend from yesterday's runs, amid current readings near 10°C and minimal cold snaps in Polish synoptic patterns. However, lingering uncertainty from potential cloud cover or frontal timing tempers extremes, with official IMGW observations set to resolve the diurnal maximum.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Warsaw on March 24?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on March 24?
13°C or higher 65%
9°C 32.1%
12°C 25%
11°C 21%
3°C or below
1%
4°C
2%
5°C
1%
6°C
1%
7°C
8%
8°C
12%
9°C
19%
10°C
20%
11°C
21%
12°C
25%
13°C or higher
44%
13°C or higher 65%
9°C 32.1%
12°C 25%
11°C 21%
3°C or below
1%
4°C
2%
5°C
1%
6°C
1%
7°C
8%
8°C
12%
9°C
19%
10°C
20%
11°C
21%
12°C
25%
13°C or higher
44%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 20, 2026, 6:27 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts drive trader optimism for a mild high in Warsaw on March 24, projecting peaks of 12-14°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge channeling warm Atlantic air advection northward. This positions 13°C or higher (42.5% implied probability) as the frontrunner, outpacing 12°C (23.5%) and lower bins, against Warsaw's March climatological average high of about 9°C. Recent model updates reflect a slight warming trend from yesterday's runs, amid current readings near 10°C and minimal cold snaps in Polish synoptic patterns. However, lingering uncertainty from potential cloud cover or frontal timing tempers extremes, with official IMGW observations set to resolve the diurnal maximum.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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