Ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS drive trader sentiment toward a tight race for Warsaw's highest temperature on March 22, with implied probabilities peaking at 27% for 14°C amid southerly winds and a persistent high-pressure ridge advecting mild Atlantic air. Recent 00Z model runs nudged 15°C-or-higher odds to 23.5% by strengthening the ridge and minimizing cloud interference during peak afternoon heating, while 13°C holds 20.5% on slightly cooler boundary layer projections. Differentiating factors include model spread of ±2°C, diel timing of maximums (typically 2-4 PM local), and potential for convective showers capping highs; this setup marks a 4-5°C anomaly above Warsaw's late-March climatological average of 9-10°C, per historical IMGW data. Watch 12Z updates for shifts.