Trader consensus on Milan's March 24 highest temperature reflects high uncertainty in ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, with probabilities tightly clustered around 16–22°C due to a mild high-pressure ridge over northern Italy. Leading odds for 16°C, 21°C, and 22°C or higher stem from divergent model outputs: cooler projections (16–17°C) anticipate partial cloud cover reducing solar insolation, while warmer ones (21–22+°C) factor in sunnier conditions and southerly föhn winds enhancing adiabatic warming. Historical March 24 maxima average 14°C, but recent mild spells and urban heat island effects in Milan support elevated trader-implied odds above climatology; watch 12Z model updates for shifts as resolution nears midnight UTC.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Milan on March 24?
Highest temperature in Milan on March 24?
16°C 11%
17°C 11%
18°C 11%
19°C 10%
12°C or below
8%
13°C
10%
14°C
10%
15°C
10%
16°C
17%
17°C
15%
18°C
15%
19°C
14%
20°C
10%
21°C
17%
22°C or higher
16%
16°C 11%
17°C 11%
18°C 11%
19°C 10%
12°C or below
8%
13°C
10%
14°C
10%
15°C
10%
16°C
17%
17°C
15%
18°C
15%
19°C
14%
20°C
10%
21°C
17%
22°C or higher
16%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 20, 2026, 6:27 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Milan's March 24 highest temperature reflects high uncertainty in ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, with probabilities tightly clustered around 16–22°C due to a mild high-pressure ridge over northern Italy. Leading odds for 16°C, 21°C, and 22°C or higher stem from divergent model outputs: cooler projections (16–17°C) anticipate partial cloud cover reducing solar insolation, while warmer ones (21–22+°C) factor in sunnier conditions and southerly föhn winds enhancing adiabatic warming. Historical March 24 maxima average 14°C, but recent mild spells and urban heat island effects in Milan support elevated trader-implied odds above climatology; watch 12Z model updates for shifts as resolution nears midnight UTC.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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