Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Houston's March 24 high temperature clustering in the mid-80s°F, with 84-85°F at 32% and 86-87°F at 28%, driven by the latest NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS) and ECMWF model ensembles projecting peaks around 85°F under a ridge of high pressure building over Texas. Differentiating factors include subtle model spread: GFS leans warmer due to stronger subsidence and clearer skies, while ECMWF tempers to 83-84°F with potential mid-afternoon cumulus clouds from Gulf moisture inflow. Historical March norms hover near 75°F, but persistent southerly winds and urban heat island effects amplify this outlier warmth; watch 18Z model runs for shifts as surface observations refine dewpoints.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Houston on March 24?
Highest temperature in Houston on March 24?
84-85°F 32%
82-83°F 27%
86-87°F 17%
90-91°F 15%
75°F or below
8%
76-77°F
13%
78-79°F
18%
80-81°F
20%
82-83°F
20%
84-85°F
32%
86-87°F
28%
88-89°F
19%
90-91°F
19%
92-93°F
16%
94°F or higher
8%
84-85°F 32%
82-83°F 27%
86-87°F 17%
90-91°F 15%
75°F or below
8%
76-77°F
13%
78-79°F
18%
80-81°F
20%
82-83°F
20%
84-85°F
32%
86-87°F
28%
88-89°F
19%
90-91°F
19%
92-93°F
16%
94°F or higher
8%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 20, 2026, 6:14 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Houston's March 24 high temperature clustering in the mid-80s°F, with 84-85°F at 32% and 86-87°F at 28%, driven by the latest NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS) and ECMWF model ensembles projecting peaks around 85°F under a ridge of high pressure building over Texas. Differentiating factors include subtle model spread: GFS leans warmer due to stronger subsidence and clearer skies, while ECMWF tempers to 83-84°F with potential mid-afternoon cumulus clouds from Gulf moisture inflow. Historical March norms hover near 75°F, but persistent southerly winds and urban heat island effects amplify this outlier warmth; watch 18Z model runs for shifts as surface observations refine dewpoints.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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