Latest forecasts from the Israel Meteorological Service and ECMWF ensemble models drive trader consensus toward an 18°C high in Tel Aviv on March 22 (36.5% implied probability), with 17°C (25%) and 19°C (18.5%) close behind, reflecting mild southerly airflow and partial cloud cover tempering typical late-March warmth. Historical data shows March highs averaging 19°C, but recent observations of cooler Mediterranean sea surface temperatures around 17°C and a weakening high-pressure system introduce downside risk, shifting odds away from 20°C+. Updated GFS runs released yesterday reinforce this clustering around 17-19°C, underscoring model convergence amid low synoptic forcing.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 22?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 22?
18°C 37%
17°C 26%
19°C 22%
20°C 8.0%
13°C or below
2%
14°C
5%
15°C
7%
16°C
8%
17°C
26%
18°C
37%
19°C
22%
20°C
8%
21°C
6%
22°C
2%
23°C or higher
1%
18°C 37%
17°C 26%
19°C 22%
20°C 8.0%
13°C or below
2%
14°C
5%
15°C
7%
16°C
8%
17°C
26%
18°C
37%
19°C
22%
20°C
8%
21°C
6%
22°C
2%
23°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ben Gurion Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/il/tel-aviv/LLBG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/il/tel-aviv/LLBGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/il/tel-aviv/LLBGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest forecasts from the Israel Meteorological Service and ECMWF ensemble models drive trader consensus toward an 18°C high in Tel Aviv on March 22 (36.5% implied probability), with 17°C (25%) and 19°C (18.5%) close behind, reflecting mild southerly airflow and partial cloud cover tempering typical late-March warmth. Historical data shows March highs averaging 19°C, but recent observations of cooler Mediterranean sea surface temperatures around 17°C and a weakening high-pressure system introduce downside risk, shifting odds away from 20°C+. Updated GFS runs released yesterday reinforce this clustering around 17-19°C, underscoring model convergence amid low synoptic forcing.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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