Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a Tel Aviv high of 20°C at 27% implied probability, driven by the latest Israel Meteorological Service forecast projecting 19-21°C amid mild high-pressure influence and moderate southerly winds limiting advection of cooler Mediterranean air. Ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS show tight clustering around 18-21°C, with 20°C favored due to diurnal peaks from urban heat island effects at Ben Gurion Airport station, where official maxima are measured. Slight edges for 18-19°C reflect potential sea breeze intensification, while 22°C+ odds (19%) hinge on unexpected clear skies persisting longer than historical late-March norms of 19.5°C average. Upcoming 12-hour updates could shift this narrow spread.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 23?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 23?
20°C 27%
18°C 25%
19°C 25%
21°C 25%
14°C or below
4%
15°C
9%
16°C
9%
17°C
9%
18°C
25%
19°C
25%
20°C
27%
21°C
25%
22°C
19%
23°C
10%
24°C or higher
18%
20°C 27%
18°C 25%
19°C 25%
21°C 25%
14°C or below
4%
15°C
9%
16°C
9%
17°C
9%
18°C
25%
19°C
25%
20°C
27%
21°C
25%
22°C
19%
23°C
10%
24°C or higher
18%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a Tel Aviv high of 20°C at 27% implied probability, driven by the latest Israel Meteorological Service forecast projecting 19-21°C amid mild high-pressure influence and moderate southerly winds limiting advection of cooler Mediterranean air. Ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS show tight clustering around 18-21°C, with 20°C favored due to diurnal peaks from urban heat island effects at Ben Gurion Airport station, where official maxima are measured. Slight edges for 18-19°C reflect potential sea breeze intensification, while 22°C+ odds (19%) hinge on unexpected clear skies persisting longer than historical late-March norms of 19.5°C average. Upcoming 12-hour updates could shift this narrow spread.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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