Latest Environment Canada forecasts point to a high near 3°C in Toronto on March 23, driving trader consensus with 2°C and 3°C sharing top implied probabilities at 23.5% each amid tight clustering around 1-4°C. This reflects ensemble model agreement from ECMWF and GFS, showing a weak ridge building aloft to moderate lingering Arctic air masses, with cloudy skies and light flurries capping highs below seasonal norms of 6°C. Recent model runs shifted odds warmer from prior -1°C leans, but short-range uncertainty persists due to jet stream waviness and potential cold front timing, differentiating sub-0°C tails (under 15% combined) from positive temps favored by surface observations. Traders eye hourly updates for resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Toronto on March 23?
Highest temperature in Toronto on March 23?
5°C or higher 32%
2°C 24%
3°C 21%
1°C 20%
-5°C or below
4%
-4°C
8%
-3°C
13%
-2°C
14%
-1°C
16%
0°C
18%
1°C
20%
2°C
24%
3°C
21%
4°C
20%
5°C or higher
20%
5°C or higher 32%
2°C 24%
3°C 21%
1°C 20%
-5°C or below
4%
-4°C
8%
-3°C
13%
-2°C
14%
-1°C
16%
0°C
18%
1°C
20%
2°C
24%
3°C
21%
4°C
20%
5°C or higher
20%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest Environment Canada forecasts point to a high near 3°C in Toronto on March 23, driving trader consensus with 2°C and 3°C sharing top implied probabilities at 23.5% each amid tight clustering around 1-4°C. This reflects ensemble model agreement from ECMWF and GFS, showing a weak ridge building aloft to moderate lingering Arctic air masses, with cloudy skies and light flurries capping highs below seasonal norms of 6°C. Recent model runs shifted odds warmer from prior -1°C leans, but short-range uncertainty persists due to jet stream waviness and potential cold front timing, differentiating sub-0°C tails (under 15% combined) from positive temps favored by surface observations. Traders eye hourly updates for resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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