Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high of 51°F or below in New York City on March 23 (40.5% implied probability), driven by the latest National Weather Service forecast projecting a daytime maximum near 51°F under mostly cloudy skies with light northerly winds. Ensemble model guidance from GFS and ECMWF has converged on this cooler outcome after earlier runs hinted at mid-50s, reflecting a persistent upper-level trough over the Northeast suppressing temperatures amid still-chilly soil conditions from winter. Historical March 23 highs average 51°F at Central Park, aligning with current odds, while recent soundings confirm dry air aloft limiting instability and warming. Upcoming 12z model runs could shift probabilities if Atlantic ridging strengthens.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in NYC on March 23?
Highest temperature in NYC on March 23?
51°F or below 41%
52-53°F 17%
56-57°F 17%
54-55°F 16%
51°F or below
41%
52-53°F
17%
54-55°F
16%
56-57°F
17%
58-59°F
8%
60-61°F
5%
62-63°F
8%
64-65°F
7%
66-67°F
3%
68-69°F
2%
70°F or higher
1%
51°F or below 41%
52-53°F 17%
56-57°F 17%
54-55°F 16%
51°F or below
41%
52-53°F
17%
54-55°F
16%
56-57°F
17%
58-59°F
8%
60-61°F
5%
62-63°F
8%
64-65°F
7%
66-67°F
3%
68-69°F
2%
70°F or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high of 51°F or below in New York City on March 23 (40.5% implied probability), driven by the latest National Weather Service forecast projecting a daytime maximum near 51°F under mostly cloudy skies with light northerly winds. Ensemble model guidance from GFS and ECMWF has converged on this cooler outcome after earlier runs hinted at mid-50s, reflecting a persistent upper-level trough over the Northeast suppressing temperatures amid still-chilly soil conditions from winter. Historical March 23 highs average 51°F at Central Park, aligning with current odds, while recent soundings confirm dry air aloft limiting instability and warming. Upcoming 12z model runs could shift probabilities if Atlantic ridging strengthens.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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