Latest ensemble forecasts from leading numerical weather prediction models like ECMWF and GFS point to a high-pressure ridge stabilizing over the eastern Mediterranean, favoring a Tel Aviv daytime high of 21-22°C on March 20, driving trader consensus toward those outcomes at 38.5% and 29.0% implied probabilities. Recent model runs show slight divergence, with ECMWF leaning warmer due to reduced cloud cover and lighter southerly winds suppressing sea-breeze cooling, while GFS holds cooler at 20-21°C amid potential overnight recovery from lows near 15°C. Historical March data from the Israel Meteorological Service averages 19-20°C highs, but this week's above-normal anomaly—tied to persistent blocking patterns—elevates 22°C odds; resolution hinges on official observations at Ben Gurion Airport station before local midnight.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 20?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 20?
22°C 40%
21°C 30%
20°C 15%
23°C 6.3%
$33,562 Vol.
$33,562 Vol.
17°C or below
1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
2%
20°C
15%
21°C
30%
22°C
40%
23°C
6%
24°C
2%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C or higher
<1%
22°C 40%
21°C 30%
20°C 15%
23°C 6.3%
$33,562 Vol.
$33,562 Vol.
17°C or below
1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
2%
20°C
15%
21°C
30%
22°C
40%
23°C
6%
24°C
2%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ben Gurion Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/il/tel-aviv/LLBG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 16, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/il/tel-aviv/LLBGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/il/tel-aviv/LLBGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from leading numerical weather prediction models like ECMWF and GFS point to a high-pressure ridge stabilizing over the eastern Mediterranean, favoring a Tel Aviv daytime high of 21-22°C on March 20, driving trader consensus toward those outcomes at 38.5% and 29.0% implied probabilities. Recent model runs show slight divergence, with ECMWF leaning warmer due to reduced cloud cover and lighter southerly winds suppressing sea-breeze cooling, while GFS holds cooler at 20-21°C amid potential overnight recovery from lows near 15°C. Historical March data from the Israel Meteorological Service averages 19-20°C highs, but this week's above-normal anomaly—tied to persistent blocking patterns—elevates 22°C odds; resolution hinges on official observations at Ben Gurion Airport station before local midnight.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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