Trader consensus favors a razor-thin race between 29°C (27%) and 30°C (26%) highs in São Paulo on March 23, driven by INMET's latest short-range forecast projecting peaks near 29.5°C under partly cloudy conditions with light southerly winds moderating heat. Ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS show tight divergence of 1-2°C, stemming from uncertain Atlantic moisture influencing cloud cover and diurnal temperature swings. Historical March 23 averages hover at 28°C, with urban heat island amplification at stations like IAG-USP potentially tipping toward 31°C if insolation intensifies; lower odds reflect fading chances of convective showers. Final model refreshes and verified observations will sharpen resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on March 23?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on March 23?
29°C 27%
30°C 26%
28°C 19%
31°C 19%
22°C or below
1%
23°C
9%
24°C
9%
25°C
9%
26°C
11%
27°C
7%
28°C
17%
29°C
27%
30°C
26%
31°C
19%
32°C or higher
17%
29°C 27%
30°C 26%
28°C 19%
31°C 19%
22°C or below
1%
23°C
9%
24°C
9%
25°C
9%
26°C
11%
27°C
7%
28°C
17%
29°C
27%
30°C
26%
31°C
19%
32°C or higher
17%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors a razor-thin race between 29°C (27%) and 30°C (26%) highs in São Paulo on March 23, driven by INMET's latest short-range forecast projecting peaks near 29.5°C under partly cloudy conditions with light southerly winds moderating heat. Ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS show tight divergence of 1-2°C, stemming from uncertain Atlantic moisture influencing cloud cover and diurnal temperature swings. Historical March 23 averages hover at 28°C, with urban heat island amplification at stations like IAG-USP potentially tipping toward 31°C if insolation intensifies; lower odds reflect fading chances of convective showers. Final model refreshes and verified observations will sharpen resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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