Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 48.5% probability for Lucknow's highest temperature on March 22 to reach 30°C or below, driven by the latest India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts projecting a daytime peak of 29-31°C under mild pre-monsoon conditions. Recent GFS and ECMWF model runs reinforce this, showing no heat dome or advection of hot air masses, with upper-level troughs suppressing highs amid light northeasterly winds. Historical March data for Lucknow averages 31°C maxima, but yesterday's observed high of 28.5°C and soil moisture retention from prior showers tilt odds against warmer outcomes like 32°C (8.5% implied probability), barring unforeseen solar heating intensification. Hourly updates from IMD remain pivotal for position adjustments.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Lucknow on March 22?
Highest temperature in Lucknow on March 22?
30°C or below 49%
31°C 23%
32°C 9%
33°C 8.2%
$18,745 Vol.
$18,745 Vol.
30°C or below
49%
31°C
23%
32°C
9%
33°C
8%
34°C
4%
35°C
2%
36°C
1%
37°C
1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
1%
40°C or higher
1%
30°C or below 49%
31°C 23%
32°C 9%
33°C 8.2%
$18,745 Vol.
$18,745 Vol.
30°C or below
49%
31°C
23%
32°C
9%
33°C
8%
34°C
4%
35°C
2%
36°C
1%
37°C
1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
1%
40°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 48.5% probability for Lucknow's highest temperature on March 22 to reach 30°C or below, driven by the latest India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts projecting a daytime peak of 29-31°C under mild pre-monsoon conditions. Recent GFS and ECMWF model runs reinforce this, showing no heat dome or advection of hot air masses, with upper-level troughs suppressing highs amid light northeasterly winds. Historical March data for Lucknow averages 31°C maxima, but yesterday's observed high of 28.5°C and soil moisture retention from prior showers tilt odds against warmer outcomes like 32°C (8.5% implied probability), barring unforeseen solar heating intensification. Hourly updates from IMD remain pivotal for position adjustments.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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