**Recent model consensus from AEMET and ECMWF points to a maximum temperature of 27–29 °C in Madrid on 24 August 2026, aligning closely with the market’s leading outcomes (28 °C at 36 %, 27 °C at 25 %, 29 °C at 17 %).** Late-summer cooling trends, combined with increased Atlantic moisture and partial cloud cover, are tempering daytime highs relative to mid-August peaks. Official guidance shows daytime maxima near or slightly below the long-term late-August average of ~30–32 °C, with limited potential for stronger warming under clear, subsiding conditions. Ensemble spreads remain modest at this short lead time, keeping extreme outcomes (≥33 °C or ≤25 °C) below 2 % probability. Traders are weighting the most recent high-resolution runs and local station climatology, which favor the narrow 27–29 °C window as the highest-likelihood range before the market resolves.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Madrid el 24 de agosto?
¿La temperatura más alta en Madrid el 24 de agosto?
28°C 35%
27°C 25%
29°C 17%
26°C 10%
NUEVO
NUEVO
24 ago 2026
23°C or below
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
2%
26°C
10%
27°C
25%
28°C
35%
29°C
17%
30°C
6%
31°C
2%
32°C
2%
33°C o más
1%
28°C 35%
27°C 25%
29°C 17%
26°C 10%
NUEVO
NUEVO
24 ago 2026
23°C or below
$58 Vol.
1%
24°C
$10 Vol.
1%
25°C
$145 Vol.
2%
26°C
$248 Vol.
10%
27°C
$386 Vol.
25%
28°C
$2,258 Vol.
35%
29°C
$214 Vol.
17%
30°C
$15 Vol.
6%
31°C
$10 Vol.
2%
32°C
$10 Vol.
2%
33°C o más
$85 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent model consensus from AEMET and ECMWF points to a maximum temperature of 27–29 °C in Madrid on 24 August 2026, aligning closely with the market’s leading outcomes (28 °C at 36 %, 27 °C at 25 %, 29 °C at 17 %).**
Late-summer cooling trends, combined with increased Atlantic moisture and partial cloud cover, are tempering daytime highs relative to mid-August peaks. Official guidance shows daytime maxima near or slightly below the long-term late-August average of ~30–32 °C, with limited potential for stronger warming under clear, subsiding conditions. Ensemble spreads remain modest at this short lead time, keeping extreme outcomes (≥33 °C or ≤25 °C) below 2 % probability. Traders are weighting the most recent high-resolution runs and local station climatology, which favor the narrow 27–29 °C window as the highest-likelihood range before the market resolves.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Aug 22, 2026, 1:56 AM ET
Volumen
$3,440Fecha de finalización
24 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 22, 2026, 1:56 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent model consensus from AEMET and ECMWF points to a maximum temperature of 27–29 °C in Madrid on 24 August 2026, aligning closely with the market’s leading outcomes (28 °C at 36 %, 27 °C at 25 %, 29 °C at 17 %).**
Late-summer cooling trends, combined with increased Atlantic moisture and partial cloud cover, are tempering daytime highs relative to mid-August peaks. Official guidance shows daytime maxima near or slightly below the long-term late-August average of ~30–32 °C, with limited potential for stronger warming under clear, subsiding conditions. Ensemble spreads remain modest at this short lead time, keeping extreme outcomes (≥33 °C or ≤25 °C) below 2 % probability. Traders are weighting the most recent high-resolution runs and local station climatology, which favor the narrow 27–29 °C window as the highest-likelihood range before the market resolves.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$3,440Fecha de finalización
24 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 22, 2026, 1:56 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent model consensus from AEMET and ECMWF points to a maximum temperature of 27–29 °C in Madrid on 24 August 2026, aligning closely with the market’s leading outcomes (28 °C at 36 %, 27 °C at 25 %, 29 °C at 17 %).** Late-summer cooling trends, combined with increased Atlantic moisture and partial cloud cover, are tempering daytime highs relative to mid-August peaks. Official guidance shows daytime maxima near or slightly below the long-term late-August average of ~30–32 °C, with limited potential for stronger warming under clear, subsiding conditions. Ensemble spreads remain modest at this short lead time, keeping extreme outcomes (≥33 °C or ≤25 °C) below 2 % probability. Traders are weighting the most recent high-resolution runs and local station climatology, which favor the narrow 27–29 °C window as the highest-likelihood range before the market resolves.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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