**Trader sentiment for Manila's September 23 maximum temperature reflects substantial forecast uncertainty in the southwest monsoon season.** Official PAGASA guidance and multiple models currently indicate a high of 32–33°C with an 80% chance of thunderstorms, consistent with September climatology of 31–32°C average highs amid high humidity and frequent convective activity. Widespread cloud cover and rainfall can suppress peak temperatures by limiting solar heating and enhancing evaporative cooling, while breaks in convection or stronger insolation could push readings toward 34–36°C. Model spreads and the potential for localized variations in storm timing create a broad distribution of plausible outcomes, with extreme tails (below 28°C or above 37°C) remaining low-probability given historical ranges and current steering patterns. Updated model runs and PAGASA briefings ahead of the date will likely drive any shifts in implied probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Manila el 23 de septiembre?
¿La temperatura más alta en Manila el 23 de septiembre?
32°C 37%
31°C 36%
33°C 36%
35°C 20%
NUEVO
NUEVO
23 sep 2026
28°C o menos
4%
29°C
17%
30°C
19%
31°C
36%
32°C
37%
33°C
36%
34°C
7%
35°C
20%
36°C
18%
37°C
4%
38°C o más
1%
32°C 37%
31°C 36%
33°C 36%
35°C 20%
NUEVO
NUEVO
23 sep 2026
28°C o menos
$0 Vol.
4%
29°C
$14 Vol.
17%
30°C
$0 Vol.
19%
31°C
$0 Vol.
36%
32°C
$0 Vol.
37%
33°C
$0 Vol.
36%
34°C
$0 Vol.
7%
35°C
$0 Vol.
20%
36°C
$0 Vol.
18%
37°C
$0 Vol.
4%
38°C o más
$11 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Manila's September 23 maximum temperature reflects substantial forecast uncertainty in the southwest monsoon season.** Official PAGASA guidance and multiple models currently indicate a high of 32–33°C with an 80% chance of thunderstorms, consistent with September climatology of 31–32°C average highs amid high humidity and frequent convective activity. Widespread cloud cover and rainfall can suppress peak temperatures by limiting solar heating and enhancing evaporative cooling, while breaks in convection or stronger insolation could push readings toward 34–36°C. Model spreads and the potential for localized variations in storm timing create a broad distribution of plausible outcomes, with extreme tails (below 28°C or above 37°C) remaining low-probability given historical ranges and current steering patterns. Updated model runs and PAGASA briefings ahead of the date will likely drive any shifts in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Sep 21, 2026, 12:59 AM ET
Volumen
$25Fecha de finalización
23 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 21, 2026, 12:59 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Manila's September 23 maximum temperature reflects substantial forecast uncertainty in the southwest monsoon season.** Official PAGASA guidance and multiple models currently indicate a high of 32–33°C with an 80% chance of thunderstorms, consistent with September climatology of 31–32°C average highs amid high humidity and frequent convective activity. Widespread cloud cover and rainfall can suppress peak temperatures by limiting solar heating and enhancing evaporative cooling, while breaks in convection or stronger insolation could push readings toward 34–36°C. Model spreads and the potential for localized variations in storm timing create a broad distribution of plausible outcomes, with extreme tails (below 28°C or above 37°C) remaining low-probability given historical ranges and current steering patterns. Updated model runs and PAGASA briefings ahead of the date will likely drive any shifts in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$25Fecha de finalización
23 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 21, 2026, 12:59 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for Manila's September 23 maximum temperature reflects substantial forecast uncertainty in the southwest monsoon season.** Official PAGASA guidance and multiple models currently indicate a high of 32–33°C with an 80% chance of thunderstorms, consistent with September climatology of 31–32°C average highs amid high humidity and frequent convective activity. Widespread cloud cover and rainfall can suppress peak temperatures by limiting solar heating and enhancing evaporative cooling, while breaks in convection or stronger insolation could push readings toward 34–36°C. Model spreads and the potential for localized variations in storm timing create a broad distribution of plausible outcomes, with extreme tails (below 28°C or above 37°C) remaining low-probability given historical ranges and current steering patterns. Updated model runs and PAGASA briefings ahead of the date will likely drive any shifts in implied probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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