Current ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models show genuine uncertainty in Tokyo’s August 16 maximum, with solutions clustered around 29–30 °C and limited spread beyond that range. Subtropical high pressure is expected to maintain hot, humid conditions, yet strengthening onshore flow and possible afternoon sea-breeze convergence introduce cooling potential that could cap the peak near 29 °C. Urban heat-island effects and boundary-layer moisture further modulate outcomes, while historical mid-August climatology places the typical daily maximum at 30–32 °C. Traders are therefore weighting the two leading bins almost equally, reflecting both model consensus near the 30 °C threshold and the narrow margin for error in tomorrow’s final observation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Tokio el 16 de agosto?
¿La temperatura más alta en Tokio el 16 de agosto?
30°C 39%
29°C 37%
28°C 16%
31°C 7%
NUEVO
$12,350 Vol.
NUEVO
$12,350 Vol.
16 ago 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
4%
28°C
16%
29°C
37%
30°C
39%
31°C
7%
32°C
3%
33°C
2%
34°C or higher
<1%
30°C 39%
29°C 37%
28°C 16%
31°C 7%
NUEVO
$12,350 Vol.
NUEVO
$12,350 Vol.
16 ago 2026
24°C or below
$1,221 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$386 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$463 Vol.
1%
27°C
$1,069 Vol.
4%
28°C
$929 Vol.
16%
29°C
$2,117 Vol.
37%
30°C
$2,543 Vol.
39%
31°C
$616 Vol.
7%
32°C
$1,477 Vol.
3%
33°C
$1,249 Vol.
2%
34°C or higher
$280 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models show genuine uncertainty in Tokyo’s August 16 maximum, with solutions clustered around 29–30 °C and limited spread beyond that range. Subtropical high pressure is expected to maintain hot, humid conditions, yet strengthening onshore flow and possible afternoon sea-breeze convergence introduce cooling potential that could cap the peak near 29 °C. Urban heat-island effects and boundary-layer moisture further modulate outcomes, while historical mid-August climatology places the typical daily maximum at 30–32 °C. Traders are therefore weighting the two leading bins almost equally, reflecting both model consensus near the 30 °C threshold and the narrow margin for error in tomorrow’s final observation.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volumen
$12,350Fecha de finalización
16 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models show genuine uncertainty in Tokyo’s August 16 maximum, with solutions clustered around 29–30 °C and limited spread beyond that range. Subtropical high pressure is expected to maintain hot, humid conditions, yet strengthening onshore flow and possible afternoon sea-breeze convergence introduce cooling potential that could cap the peak near 29 °C. Urban heat-island effects and boundary-layer moisture further modulate outcomes, while historical mid-August climatology places the typical daily maximum at 30–32 °C. Traders are therefore weighting the two leading bins almost equally, reflecting both model consensus near the 30 °C threshold and the narrow margin for error in tomorrow’s final observation.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$12,350Fecha de finalización
16 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models show genuine uncertainty in Tokyo’s August 16 maximum, with solutions clustered around 29–30 °C and limited spread beyond that range. Subtropical high pressure is expected to maintain hot, humid conditions, yet strengthening onshore flow and possible afternoon sea-breeze convergence introduce cooling potential that could cap the peak near 29 °C. Urban heat-island effects and boundary-layer moisture further modulate outcomes, while historical mid-August climatology places the typical daily maximum at 30–32 °C. Traders are therefore weighting the two leading bins almost equally, reflecting both model consensus near the 30 °C threshold and the narrow margin for error in tomorrow’s final observation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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