**Forecast model consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and international ensembles places Tokyo's August 23 daytime maximum near 30–31°C, driving the tightly matched market-implied odds.** Variable cloud cover and a 30–50% chance of scattered showers or thunderstorms are expected to limit peak solar heating, while light northeast winds reduce advection of warmer air and moderate urban heat-island amplification. Recent days have seen similar conditions with observed highs of 30–33°C amid a persistent summer pattern of high humidity and weak pressure gradients. Minor divergences among model runs—particularly in timing of cloud breaks versus precipitation—account for the near-even split between 30°C and 31°C outcomes, with lower probabilities assigned to 29°C or 32°C+ reflecting the narrow uncertainty range in the 48-hour forecast window. Updated JMA guidance and ensemble spreads will be key ahead of resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Tokio el 23 de agosto?
¿La temperatura más alta en Tokio el 23 de agosto?
30°C 34%
31°C 32%
29°C 14%
32°C 8%
NUEVO
NUEVO
23 ago 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
2%
28°C
5%
29°C
14%
30°C
34%
31°C
32%
32°C
8%
33°C
3%
34°C
2%
35°C or higher
1%
30°C 34%
31°C 32%
29°C 14%
32°C 8%
NUEVO
NUEVO
23 ago 2026
25°C or below
$302 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$306 Vol.
1%
27°C
$52 Vol.
2%
28°C
$27 Vol.
5%
29°C
$499 Vol.
14%
30°C
$462 Vol.
34%
31°C
$743 Vol.
32%
32°C
$465 Vol.
8%
33°C
$107 Vol.
3%
34°C
$15 Vol.
2%
35°C or higher
$87 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast model consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and international ensembles places Tokyo's August 23 daytime maximum near 30–31°C, driving the tightly matched market-implied odds.** Variable cloud cover and a 30–50% chance of scattered showers or thunderstorms are expected to limit peak solar heating, while light northeast winds reduce advection of warmer air and moderate urban heat-island amplification. Recent days have seen similar conditions with observed highs of 30–33°C amid a persistent summer pattern of high humidity and weak pressure gradients. Minor divergences among model runs—particularly in timing of cloud breaks versus precipitation—account for the near-even split between 30°C and 31°C outcomes, with lower probabilities assigned to 29°C or 32°C+ reflecting the narrow uncertainty range in the 48-hour forecast window. Updated JMA guidance and ensemble spreads will be key ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Aug 21, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volumen
$3,065Fecha de finalización
23 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 21, 2026, 12:56 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast model consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and international ensembles places Tokyo's August 23 daytime maximum near 30–31°C, driving the tightly matched market-implied odds.** Variable cloud cover and a 30–50% chance of scattered showers or thunderstorms are expected to limit peak solar heating, while light northeast winds reduce advection of warmer air and moderate urban heat-island amplification. Recent days have seen similar conditions with observed highs of 30–33°C amid a persistent summer pattern of high humidity and weak pressure gradients. Minor divergences among model runs—particularly in timing of cloud breaks versus precipitation—account for the near-even split between 30°C and 31°C outcomes, with lower probabilities assigned to 29°C or 32°C+ reflecting the narrow uncertainty range in the 48-hour forecast window. Updated JMA guidance and ensemble spreads will be key ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$3,065Fecha de finalización
23 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 21, 2026, 12:56 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast model consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and international ensembles places Tokyo's August 23 daytime maximum near 30–31°C, driving the tightly matched market-implied odds.** Variable cloud cover and a 30–50% chance of scattered showers or thunderstorms are expected to limit peak solar heating, while light northeast winds reduce advection of warmer air and moderate urban heat-island amplification. Recent days have seen similar conditions with observed highs of 30–33°C amid a persistent summer pattern of high humidity and weak pressure gradients. Minor divergences among model runs—particularly in timing of cloud breaks versus precipitation—account for the near-even split between 30°C and 31°C outcomes, with lower probabilities assigned to 29°C or 32°C+ reflecting the narrow uncertainty range in the 48-hour forecast window. Updated JMA guidance and ensemble spreads will be key ahead of resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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