Forecast models from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate limited nocturnal cooling for Tokyo on August 22, with minimum temperatures likely settling near 25–26°C due to high humidity (often 80–95%), light variable winds, and variable cloud cover that reduces radiative heat loss. Recent observations show overnight lows fluctuating between 22–25°C amid humid conditions and scattered showers, keeping the urban heat island effect prominent. Ensemble runs highlight sensitivity to exact timing of any clearing or wind shifts, which could tip the minimum by 1°C. Updated model outputs and JMA briefings over the next 24 hours represent key decision points for traders assessing these closely matched outcomes.