Trader consensus around 32–33°C for Tokyo’s August 9 high reflects persistent above-normal summer heat driven by a strengthened Pacific High extending over Honshu, per Japan Meteorological Agency outlooks. Recent model runs show typical urban afternoon peaks of 31–34°C amid high humidity, with slight divergences in cloud cover or timing of weak fronts creating the close 35.5% vs 30% implied probabilities between the top two bins. Historical August baselines average near 31°C, yet 2026 conditions favor the upper end of that range absent a sudden typhoon influence. Short-term JMA and ensemble updates over the next 48 hours will refine land-breeze and insolation effects that distinguish these narrow thresholds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Tokio el 9 de agosto?
¿La temperatura más alta en Tokio el 9 de agosto?
33°C 36%
32°C 30%
34°C 16%
31°C 10%
NUEVO
NUEVO
9 ago 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
2%
30°C
5%
31°C
10%
32°C
30%
33°C
36%
34°C
16%
35°C
4%
36°C
1%
37°C or higher
1%
33°C 36%
32°C 30%
34°C 16%
31°C 10%
NUEVO
NUEVO
9 ago 2026
27°C or below
$147 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$87 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$578 Vol.
2%
30°C
$34 Vol.
5%
31°C
$279 Vol.
10%
32°C
$77 Vol.
30%
33°C
$274 Vol.
36%
34°C
$76 Vol.
16%
35°C
$386 Vol.
4%
36°C
$165 Vol.
1%
37°C or higher
$27 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus around 32–33°C for Tokyo’s August 9 high reflects persistent above-normal summer heat driven by a strengthened Pacific High extending over Honshu, per Japan Meteorological Agency outlooks. Recent model runs show typical urban afternoon peaks of 31–34°C amid high humidity, with slight divergences in cloud cover or timing of weak fronts creating the close 35.5% vs 30% implied probabilities between the top two bins. Historical August baselines average near 31°C, yet 2026 conditions favor the upper end of that range absent a sudden typhoon influence. Short-term JMA and ensemble updates over the next 48 hours will refine land-breeze and insolation effects that distinguish these narrow thresholds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Aug 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volumen
$2,131Fecha de finalización
9 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus around 32–33°C for Tokyo’s August 9 high reflects persistent above-normal summer heat driven by a strengthened Pacific High extending over Honshu, per Japan Meteorological Agency outlooks. Recent model runs show typical urban afternoon peaks of 31–34°C amid high humidity, with slight divergences in cloud cover or timing of weak fronts creating the close 35.5% vs 30% implied probabilities between the top two bins. Historical August baselines average near 31°C, yet 2026 conditions favor the upper end of that range absent a sudden typhoon influence. Short-term JMA and ensemble updates over the next 48 hours will refine land-breeze and insolation effects that distinguish these narrow thresholds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$2,131Fecha de finalización
9 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus around 32–33°C for Tokyo’s August 9 high reflects persistent above-normal summer heat driven by a strengthened Pacific High extending over Honshu, per Japan Meteorological Agency outlooks. Recent model runs show typical urban afternoon peaks of 31–34°C amid high humidity, with slight divergences in cloud cover or timing of weak fronts creating the close 35.5% vs 30% implied probabilities between the top two bins. Historical August baselines average near 31°C, yet 2026 conditions favor the upper end of that range absent a sudden typhoon influence. Short-term JMA and ensemble updates over the next 48 hours will refine land-breeze and insolation effects that distinguish these narrow thresholds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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