Recent Met Office guidance and ensemble model runs indicate a moderating westerly flow and high pressure building across southern England, producing mostly dry conditions with sunny spells for London on August 7. After midweek cooling that capped peaks near 22 °C, daytime maximums are expected to recover into the mid-20s as insolation increases surface heating without strong advection of warmer air masses. This positions the 25–26 °C outcomes as the narrowest cluster in trader pricing, reflecting tight model consensus around those thresholds and the low probability of either a sharp frontal intrusion or prolonged clear-sky amplification pushing values higher. Updated short-range guidance over the next 48 hours will refine whether subtle ridge strengthening can add an extra degree.