Recent forecast model runs for Buenos Aires show the September 25 minimum temperature centered near 15°C, with uncertainty in overnight radiational cooling driven by variable northerly winds shifting southward and patchy cloud cover. These factors create a tight range of possible outcomes around 13–17°C, explaining why market-implied odds cluster near 20–21.5% for specific mid-range values while “11°C or below” and “21°C or higher” sit almost even at 45.5% and 44.0%. Springtime airmass variability and the short two-day horizon amplify small differences in wind speed or dew-point depression that can shift the low by several degrees. Traders are aggregating the latest ECMWF and GFS guidance alongside historical analogs to price this narrow band of scientific uncertainty.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Buenos Aires el 25 de septiembre?
¿Temperatura más baja en Buenos Aires el 25 de septiembre?
21°C o más 87%
11°C o menos 44%
18°C 38%
19°C 38%
NUEVO
NUEVO
25 sep 2026
11°C o menos
44%
12°C
21%
13°C
21%
14°C
22%
15°C
22%
16°C
22%
17°C
20%
18°C
38%
19°C
38%
20°C
38%
21°C o más
87%
21°C o más 87%
11°C o menos 44%
18°C 38%
19°C 38%
NUEVO
NUEVO
25 sep 2026
11°C o menos
$41 Vol.
44%
12°C
$0 Vol.
21%
13°C
$0 Vol.
21%
14°C
$0 Vol.
22%
15°C
$0 Vol.
22%
16°C
$0 Vol.
22%
17°C
$0 Vol.
20%
18°C
$10 Vol.
38%
19°C
$10 Vol.
38%
20°C
$10 Vol.
38%
21°C o más
$10 Vol.
87%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs for Buenos Aires show the September 25 minimum temperature centered near 15°C, with uncertainty in overnight radiational cooling driven by variable northerly winds shifting southward and patchy cloud cover. These factors create a tight range of possible outcomes around 13–17°C, explaining why market-implied odds cluster near 20–21.5% for specific mid-range values while “11°C or below” and “21°C or higher” sit almost even at 45.5% and 44.0%. Springtime airmass variability and the short two-day horizon amplify small differences in wind speed or dew-point depression that can shift the low by several degrees. Traders are aggregating the latest ECMWF and GFS guidance alongside historical analogs to price this narrow band of scientific uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Sep 23, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volumen
$81Fecha de finalización
25 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 23, 2026, 8:29 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saezResolver
0x69c47de9d...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs for Buenos Aires show the September 25 minimum temperature centered near 15°C, with uncertainty in overnight radiational cooling driven by variable northerly winds shifting southward and patchy cloud cover. These factors create a tight range of possible outcomes around 13–17°C, explaining why market-implied odds cluster near 20–21.5% for specific mid-range values while “11°C or below” and “21°C or higher” sit almost even at 45.5% and 44.0%. Springtime airmass variability and the short two-day horizon amplify small differences in wind speed or dew-point depression that can shift the low by several degrees. Traders are aggregating the latest ECMWF and GFS guidance alongside historical analogs to price this narrow band of scientific uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$81Fecha de finalización
25 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 23, 2026, 8:29 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saezResolver
0x69c47de9d...Recent forecast model runs for Buenos Aires show the September 25 minimum temperature centered near 15°C, with uncertainty in overnight radiational cooling driven by variable northerly winds shifting southward and patchy cloud cover. These factors create a tight range of possible outcomes around 13–17°C, explaining why market-implied odds cluster near 20–21.5% for specific mid-range values while “11°C or below” and “21°C or higher” sit almost even at 45.5% and 44.0%. Springtime airmass variability and the short two-day horizon amplify small differences in wind speed or dew-point depression that can shift the low by several degrees. Traders are aggregating the latest ECMWF and GFS guidance alongside historical analogs to price this narrow band of scientific uncertainty.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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