**Trader consensus on the lowest temperature in Chongqing on August 21 centers on 23–25°C amid closely matched market-implied probabilities.** Official forecasts from the Chongqing Meteorological Observatory indicate a daytime range of roughly 21–37°C with scattered showers or thunderstorms, pointing to overnight minima moderated by cloud cover and high humidity typical of the region's subtropical monsoon climate. Recent days have seen minimums near 26°C under partly cloudy conditions with localized heavy rain, which can suppress radiative cooling and keep nighttime temperatures elevated compared to clearer historical baselines around 25°C. Model differences arise from variable precipitation timing, urban heat island effects in the city center, and wind patterns that influence boundary-layer mixing. New observational data from surface stations will resolve the exact daily minimum, with traders weighting official reports over model spreads given the narrow outcome band.