Recent KMA short-range guidance and ensemble model runs indicate a minimum temperature near 23–24°C for Incheon on 23 August, with trader consensus clustering on 24–25°C reflecting modest nocturnal cloud cover and elevated humidity that limit radiative cooling. Persistent onshore flow from the Yellow Sea and residual moisture from upstream frontal activity are expected to suppress the usual nocturnal drop by 1–2°C relative to clear-sky climatology, while urban heat-island effects in the Seoul-Incheon corridor add a further ~0.5°C buffer. Differentiation between the 24°C and 25°C bins hinges on the precise timing and coverage of any late-day showers, which would enhance evaporative cooling and favor the lower outcome; conversely, clearer intervals overnight would push readings toward 25°C. Updated KMA and ECMWF guidance issued on 22 August will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.