**Trader sentiment for Taipei's daily minimum temperature on August 24 reflects substantial uncertainty in short-range forecast details, with probabilities clustered around 21–27°C and 21°C or below leading at 36%.** Current official guidance from Taiwan's Central Weather Administration and consensus models points to a daily low near 26°C amid typical late-summer conditions: highs of 32–34°C, high humidity (often 70–90%), and a 50–70% chance of afternoon thundershowers. These showers and associated cloud cover are the main variables that can lower nighttime minima by enhancing evaporative cooling and reducing longwave radiative heat loss, while clearer intervals allow slightly warmer lows closer to 27–28°C. Urban heat-island effects in Taipei tend to moderate extremes, but localized rainfall timing and wind patterns near resolution thresholds (e.g., whether the minimum falls to 25°C or stays at 26–27°C) explain the tight spread in market-implied odds. With the event only ~48 hours away, upcoming model runs and official updates will likely narrow the range by clarifying steering patterns and precipitation coverage.