Recent forecast guidance from multiple models shows Tel Aviv minimum temperatures on September 26 likely ranging 22–24 °C under stable high-pressure conditions, light northwesterly winds, and clear to mostly clear skies with minimal cloud cover or precipitation. This places the expected overnight low near long-term September climatology, yet small variations in boundary-layer mixing, coastal sea-breeze timing, or dew-point advection can shift the exact minimum by 1–2 °C. With market-implied probabilities nearly even between sub-18 °C and 28 °C-plus outcomes, traders appear to be pricing in residual model spread and the possibility of an unseasonal cool surge or warmer downslope flow, both of which remain low-probability but would decisively alter resolution. Updated short-range model runs and official Israeli Meteorological Service guidance over the next 48 hours represent the key catalysts that could narrow the distribution.