**Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and multiple global models point to a minimum temperature of 21°C for Tokyo on September 13, 2026, driving the 49% market-implied probability for that outcome.** Recent model runs show overnight lows stabilizing near 21–22°C under partly cloudy to overcast conditions with light winds and possible scattered showers, which limit radiative cooling. This aligns with seasonal norms for mid-September, when typical minimums range from 19–22°C, and follows a period of slightly cooler readings (17–20°C) earlier in the month due to prior rainfall and frontal activity. Model consensus remains tight around these values, with limited divergence expected before resolution, though any unexpected clear skies or stronger southerly flow could nudge the low slightly higher or lower. Traders appear to be weighting the authoritative JMA guidance and ensemble outputs most heavily, consistent with the tight clustering of probabilities between 19–22°C.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Tokio el 13 de septiembre?
¿Temperatura más baja en Tokio el 13 de septiembre?
21°C 39%
20°C 26%
19°C 8%
22°C 5%
NUEVO
NUEVO
13 sep 2026
17°C o menos
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
16%
20°C
26%
21°C
39%
22°C
5%
23°C
2%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C o más
<1%
21°C 39%
20°C 26%
19°C 8%
22°C 5%
NUEVO
NUEVO
13 sep 2026
17°C o menos
$110 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$49 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$141 Vol.
16%
20°C
$187 Vol.
26%
21°C
$1,212 Vol.
39%
22°C
$1,193 Vol.
5%
23°C
$600 Vol.
2%
24°C
$157 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$149 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$57 Vol.
<1%
27°C o más
$110 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and multiple global models point to a minimum temperature of 21°C for Tokyo on September 13, 2026, driving the 49% market-implied probability for that outcome.**
Recent model runs show overnight lows stabilizing near 21–22°C under partly cloudy to overcast conditions with light winds and possible scattered showers, which limit radiative cooling. This aligns with seasonal norms for mid-September, when typical minimums range from 19–22°C, and follows a period of slightly cooler readings (17–20°C) earlier in the month due to prior rainfall and frontal activity.
Model consensus remains tight around these values, with limited divergence expected before resolution, though any unexpected clear skies or stronger southerly flow could nudge the low slightly higher or lower. Traders appear to be weighting the authoritative JMA guidance and ensemble outputs most heavily, consistent with the tight clustering of probabilities between 19–22°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Sep 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volumen
$3,274Fecha de finalización
13 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and multiple global models point to a minimum temperature of 21°C for Tokyo on September 13, 2026, driving the 49% market-implied probability for that outcome.**
Recent model runs show overnight lows stabilizing near 21–22°C under partly cloudy to overcast conditions with light winds and possible scattered showers, which limit radiative cooling. This aligns with seasonal norms for mid-September, when typical minimums range from 19–22°C, and follows a period of slightly cooler readings (17–20°C) earlier in the month due to prior rainfall and frontal activity.
Model consensus remains tight around these values, with limited divergence expected before resolution, though any unexpected clear skies or stronger southerly flow could nudge the low slightly higher or lower. Traders appear to be weighting the authoritative JMA guidance and ensemble outputs most heavily, consistent with the tight clustering of probabilities between 19–22°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$3,274Fecha de finalización
13 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and multiple global models point to a minimum temperature of 21°C for Tokyo on September 13, 2026, driving the 49% market-implied probability for that outcome.** Recent model runs show overnight lows stabilizing near 21–22°C under partly cloudy to overcast conditions with light winds and possible scattered showers, which limit radiative cooling. This aligns with seasonal norms for mid-September, when typical minimums range from 19–22°C, and follows a period of slightly cooler readings (17–20°C) earlier in the month due to prior rainfall and frontal activity. Model consensus remains tight around these values, with limited divergence expected before resolution, though any unexpected clear skies or stronger southerly flow could nudge the low slightly higher or lower. Traders appear to be weighting the authoritative JMA guidance and ensemble outputs most heavily, consistent with the tight clustering of probabilities between 19–22°C.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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