Trader consensus highlights a tight contest between 20°C and 19°C for Tokyo’s minimum temperature on September 17, driven by short-range forecast model spread on nocturnal cooling. Ensemble outputs from agencies such as the Japan Meteorological Agency show modest divergence in predicted cloud cover, boundary-layer wind, and urban heat-island retention, which can shift overnight lows by 1–2°C. Mid-September climatology places typical minimums near 20°C, yet current synoptic flow and any late-day moisture advection introduce realistic scenarios for either outcome. Fresh model cycles and observational updates through the evening will further constrain these market-implied probabilities before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Tokio el 17 de septiembre?
¿Temperatura más baja en Tokio el 17 de septiembre?
20°C 40%
19°C 37%
21°C 14%
17°C 13%
NUEVO
NUEVO
17 sep 2026
15°C o menos
1%
16°C
1%
17°C
13%
18°C
7%
19°C
37%
20°C
40%
21°C
14%
22°C
3%
23°C
2%
24°C
1%
25°C o más
<1%
20°C 40%
19°C 37%
21°C 14%
17°C 13%
NUEVO
NUEVO
17 sep 2026
15°C o menos
$25 Vol.
1%
16°C
$25 Vol.
1%
17°C
$0 Vol.
13%
18°C
$140 Vol.
7%
19°C
$178 Vol.
37%
20°C
$381 Vol.
40%
21°C
$30 Vol.
14%
22°C
$0 Vol.
3%
23°C
$0 Vol.
2%
24°C
$25 Vol.
1%
25°C o más
$53 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus highlights a tight contest between 20°C and 19°C for Tokyo’s minimum temperature on September 17, driven by short-range forecast model spread on nocturnal cooling. Ensemble outputs from agencies such as the Japan Meteorological Agency show modest divergence in predicted cloud cover, boundary-layer wind, and urban heat-island retention, which can shift overnight lows by 1–2°C. Mid-September climatology places typical minimums near 20°C, yet current synoptic flow and any late-day moisture advection introduce realistic scenarios for either outcome. Fresh model cycles and observational updates through the evening will further constrain these market-implied probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Sep 15, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volumen
$859Fecha de finalización
17 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 15, 2026, 12:29 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus highlights a tight contest between 20°C and 19°C for Tokyo’s minimum temperature on September 17, driven by short-range forecast model spread on nocturnal cooling. Ensemble outputs from agencies such as the Japan Meteorological Agency show modest divergence in predicted cloud cover, boundary-layer wind, and urban heat-island retention, which can shift overnight lows by 1–2°C. Mid-September climatology places typical minimums near 20°C, yet current synoptic flow and any late-day moisture advection introduce realistic scenarios for either outcome. Fresh model cycles and observational updates through the evening will further constrain these market-implied probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$859Fecha de finalización
17 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 15, 2026, 12:29 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus highlights a tight contest between 20°C and 19°C for Tokyo’s minimum temperature on September 17, driven by short-range forecast model spread on nocturnal cooling. Ensemble outputs from agencies such as the Japan Meteorological Agency show modest divergence in predicted cloud cover, boundary-layer wind, and urban heat-island retention, which can shift overnight lows by 1–2°C. Mid-September climatology places typical minimums near 20°C, yet current synoptic flow and any late-day moisture advection introduce realistic scenarios for either outcome. Fresh model cycles and observational updates through the evening will further constrain these market-implied probabilities before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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