**Trader consensus centers on a narrow 9–12°C range for Wellington’s overnight minimum on August 29 because official and model guidance converge on that band amid moderating northwesterly flow and partial clearing.** MetService and multiple international forecasts (GFS/ECMWF analogs) project a daytime high near 14°C with the lowest temperatures occurring pre-dawn under mainly fine conditions and northwesterlies of 15–25 knots. These winds limit radiative cooling while residual moisture and the coastal marine layer prevent sharp drops below ~9°C. Historical August climatology places typical minima near 9–11°C, providing a baseline that recent model runs have not significantly deviated from. Differentiation among the tightly bunched 9–12°C outcomes hinges on small variations in cloud cover timing, exact wind speeds overnight, and the strength of any brief shower clearing. Clearer skies and lighter winds favor the lower end (9–10°C) via enhanced longwave radiation loss, while persistent cloud or stronger flow supports 11–12°C. Probabilities below 8°C or above 13°C remain minimal because current steering patterns and sea-surface temperatures make extremes unlikely within the 24-hour window. Updated model runs and MetService briefings on the 29th will be the key near-term catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Wellington el 29 de agosto?
¿Temperatura más baja en Wellington el 29 de agosto?
13°C 49%
11°C 27%
10°C 27%
9°C 26%
NUEVO
NUEVO
29 ago 2026
6°C or below
2%
7°C
2%
8°C
23%
9°C
26%
10°C
27%
11°C
27%
12°C
26%
13°C
49%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C or higher
<1%
13°C 49%
11°C 27%
10°C 27%
9°C 26%
NUEVO
NUEVO
29 ago 2026
6°C or below
$16 Vol.
2%
7°C
$174 Vol.
2%
8°C
$72 Vol.
23%
9°C
$26 Vol.
26%
10°C
$0 Vol.
27%
11°C
$20 Vol.
27%
12°C
$16 Vol.
26%
13°C
$47 Vol.
49%
14°C
$30 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$35 Vol.
<1%
16°C or higher
$35 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus centers on a narrow 9–12°C range for Wellington’s overnight minimum on August 29 because official and model guidance converge on that band amid moderating northwesterly flow and partial clearing.**
MetService and multiple international forecasts (GFS/ECMWF analogs) project a daytime high near 14°C with the lowest temperatures occurring pre-dawn under mainly fine conditions and northwesterlies of 15–25 knots. These winds limit radiative cooling while residual moisture and the coastal marine layer prevent sharp drops below ~9°C. Historical August climatology places typical minima near 9–11°C, providing a baseline that recent model runs have not significantly deviated from.
Differentiation among the tightly bunched 9–12°C outcomes hinges on small variations in cloud cover timing, exact wind speeds overnight, and the strength of any brief shower clearing. Clearer skies and lighter winds favor the lower end (9–10°C) via enhanced longwave radiation loss, while persistent cloud or stronger flow supports 11–12°C. Probabilities below 8°C or above 13°C remain minimal because current steering patterns and sea-surface temperatures make extremes unlikely within the 24-hour window. Updated model runs and MetService briefings on the 29th will be the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Aug 27, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volumen
$471Fecha de finalización
29 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 27, 2026, 12:29 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus centers on a narrow 9–12°C range for Wellington’s overnight minimum on August 29 because official and model guidance converge on that band amid moderating northwesterly flow and partial clearing.**
MetService and multiple international forecasts (GFS/ECMWF analogs) project a daytime high near 14°C with the lowest temperatures occurring pre-dawn under mainly fine conditions and northwesterlies of 15–25 knots. These winds limit radiative cooling while residual moisture and the coastal marine layer prevent sharp drops below ~9°C. Historical August climatology places typical minima near 9–11°C, providing a baseline that recent model runs have not significantly deviated from.
Differentiation among the tightly bunched 9–12°C outcomes hinges on small variations in cloud cover timing, exact wind speeds overnight, and the strength of any brief shower clearing. Clearer skies and lighter winds favor the lower end (9–10°C) via enhanced longwave radiation loss, while persistent cloud or stronger flow supports 11–12°C. Probabilities below 8°C or above 13°C remain minimal because current steering patterns and sea-surface temperatures make extremes unlikely within the 24-hour window. Updated model runs and MetService briefings on the 29th will be the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$471Fecha de finalización
29 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 27, 2026, 12:29 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus centers on a narrow 9–12°C range for Wellington’s overnight minimum on August 29 because official and model guidance converge on that band amid moderating northwesterly flow and partial clearing.** MetService and multiple international forecasts (GFS/ECMWF analogs) project a daytime high near 14°C with the lowest temperatures occurring pre-dawn under mainly fine conditions and northwesterlies of 15–25 knots. These winds limit radiative cooling while residual moisture and the coastal marine layer prevent sharp drops below ~9°C. Historical August climatology places typical minima near 9–11°C, providing a baseline that recent model runs have not significantly deviated from. Differentiation among the tightly bunched 9–12°C outcomes hinges on small variations in cloud cover timing, exact wind speeds overnight, and the strength of any brief shower clearing. Clearer skies and lighter winds favor the lower end (9–10°C) via enhanced longwave radiation loss, while persistent cloud or stronger flow supports 11–12°C. Probabilities below 8°C or above 13°C remain minimal because current steering patterns and sea-surface temperatures make extremes unlikely within the 24-hour window. Updated model runs and MetService briefings on the 29th will be the key near-term catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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