Recent official rejection of Pedro Castillo’s pardon request by Peru’s Ministry of Justice and Human Rights in July 2026 has reinforced trader expectations. The Presidential Pardons Commission unanimously declared the filing inadmissible for failing to meet procedural requirements, closing off any grant before interim President José María Balcázar’s term concludes. Castillo remains imprisoned following his November 2025 conviction and 11-year sentence for rebellion tied to the 2022 congressional dissolution attempt. With limited time left in 2026 and no scheduled executive actions or legislative changes that would reopen clemency pathways under the current transitional framework, the 65% probability on “No” reflects the consensus that structural and timing barriers make a pardon this year improbable.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoPedro Castillo pardoned in 2026?
Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026?
47% probabilidad
$42,819 Vol.
$42,819 Vol.
31 dic 2026
47% probabilidad
$42,819 Vol.
$42,819 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pedro Castillo receives a presidential pardon, commutation, right of grace, humanitarian pardon, or other formal grant of clemency from the President of Peru by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.
A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.
Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Recent official rejection of Pedro Castillo’s pardon request by Peru’s Ministry of Justice and Human Rights in July 2026 has reinforced trader expectations. The Presidential Pardons Commission unanimously declared the filing inadmissible for failing to meet procedural requirements, closing off any grant before interim President José María Balcázar’s term concludes. Castillo remains imprisoned following his November 2025 conviction and 11-year sentence for rebellion tied to the 2022 congressional dissolution attempt. With limited time left in 2026 and no scheduled executive actions or legislative changes that would reopen clemency pathways under the current transitional framework, the 65% probability on “No” reflects the consensus that structural and timing barriers make a pardon this year improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pedro Castillo receives a presidential pardon, commutation, right of grace, humanitarian pardon, or other formal grant of clemency from the President of Peru by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.
A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.
Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.
A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.
Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jun 9, 2026, 7:32 PM ET
Volumen
$42,819Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 9, 2026, 7:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pedro Castillo receives a presidential pardon, commutation, right of grace, humanitarian pardon, or other formal grant of clemency from the President of Peru by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.
A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.
Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Recent official rejection of Pedro Castillo’s pardon request by Peru’s Ministry of Justice and Human Rights in July 2026 has reinforced trader expectations. The Presidential Pardons Commission unanimously declared the filing inadmissible for failing to meet procedural requirements, closing off any grant before interim President José María Balcázar’s term concludes. Castillo remains imprisoned following his November 2025 conviction and 11-year sentence for rebellion tied to the 2022 congressional dissolution attempt. With limited time left in 2026 and no scheduled executive actions or legislative changes that would reopen clemency pathways under the current transitional framework, the 65% probability on “No” reflects the consensus that structural and timing barriers make a pardon this year improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pedro Castillo receives a presidential pardon, commutation, right of grace, humanitarian pardon, or other formal grant of clemency from the President of Peru by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.
A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.
Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.
A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.
Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$42,819Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 9, 2026, 7:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent official rejection of Pedro Castillo’s pardon request by Peru’s Ministry of Justice and Human Rights in July 2026 has reinforced trader expectations. The Presidential Pardons Commission unanimously declared the filing inadmissible for failing to meet procedural requirements, closing off any grant before interim President José María Balcázar’s term concludes. Castillo remains imprisoned following his November 2025 conviction and 11-year sentence for rebellion tied to the 2022 congressional dissolution attempt. With limited time left in 2026 and no scheduled executive actions or legislative changes that would reopen clemency pathways under the current transitional framework, the 65% probability on “No” reflects the consensus that structural and timing barriers make a pardon this year improbable.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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