Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 92.5% implied probability to "No" for Pluto's reclassification as a planet by June 30, 2026, reflecting the enduring authority of the International Astronomical Union (IAU)'s 2006 definition, which requires a body to clear its orbital neighborhood—a criterion Pluto fails amid Kuiper Belt objects. Recent comments from NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman, responding to a viral letter from a 10-year-old, sparked brief speculation by suggesting NASA is "looking into" the issue, but the IAU—not NASA—holds sole definitional power, with no proposals, symposia, or its next General Assembly (August 2027) poised for action by the deadline. New Horizons mission data highlighting Pluto's geological complexity has not swayed dynamical classification standards, underscoring scientific inertia against hasty reversal. Realistic challenges would require an unprecedented IAU emergency vote or paradigm-shifting evidence, both highly improbable within weeks.