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Política·Elección Principal

Elección al Senado de Rio Grande do Sul: 1er lugar

icon for Elección al Senado de Rio Grande do Sul: 1er lugar
Política·Elección Principal

Elección al Senado de Rio Grande do Sul: 1er lugar

Manuela D'Ávila 34%

Marcel Van Hattem 32%

Daniela Mulheres Socialistas 25%

Milton Cardoso 18%

Polymarket
NUEVO

Manuela D'Ávila 34%

Marcel Van Hattem 32%

Daniela Mulheres Socialistas 25%

Milton Cardoso 18%

Polymarket
NUEVO
icon for Manuela D'Ávila

Manuela D'Ávila

$110 Vol.

24%

icon for Marcel Van Hattem

Marcel Van Hattem

$150 Vol.

22%

icon for Daniela Mulheres Socialistas

Daniela Mulheres Socialistas

$69 Vol.

25%

icon for Milton Cardoso

Milton Cardoso

$69 Vol.

18%

icon for Regis Ethur

Regis Ethur

$69 Vol.

16%

icon for Sanderson

Sanderson

$102 Vol.

11%

icon for Rigotto

Rigotto

$69 Vol.

10%

icon for Frederico Antunes

Frederico Antunes

$141 Vol.

9%

icon for Ric Jones

Ric Jones

$69 Vol.

8%

icon for Tania Peres

Tania Peres

$155 Vol.

8%

icon for Pimenta

Pimenta

$69 Vol.

8%

icon for Renato Jaguarão

Renato Jaguarão

$69 Vol.

8%

icon for Luciano do MLB

Luciano do MLB

$68 Vol.

7%

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The fragmented field for Rio Grande do Sul's two Senate seats on October 4, 2026, keeps implied probabilities for first place tightly clustered among multiple contenders. Early surveys, including late-June RealTime BigData and Paraná Pesquisas data, show Marcel Van Hattem, Manuela d’Ávila, Sanderson, Paulo Pimenta, and Germano Rigotto within narrow margins, reflecting undecided voter preferences ahead of formal campaigning and finalized coalitions. With no incumbent seeking re-election and party alliances still fluid, traders price in elevated uncertainty over which candidate can consolidate support in the state's proportional system. Scheduled events such as the August 16 campaign launch and further polling could shift momentum by clarifying turnout patterns and second-round dynamics among the leading names.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volumen
$1,205
Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026
Mercado abierto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The fragmented field for Rio Grande do Sul's two Senate seats on October 4, 2026, keeps implied probabilities for first place tightly clustered among multiple contenders. Early surveys, including late-June RealTime BigData and Paraná Pesquisas data, show Marcel Van Hattem, Manuela d’Ávila, Sanderson, Paulo Pimenta, and Germano Rigotto within narrow margins, reflecting undecided voter preferences ahead of formal campaigning and finalized coalitions. With no incumbent seeking re-election and party alliances still fluid, traders price in elevated uncertainty over which candidate can consolidate support in the state's proportional system. Scheduled events such as the August 16 campaign launch and further polling could shift momentum by clarifying turnout patterns and second-round dynamics among the leading names.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volumen
$1,205
Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026
Mercado abierto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

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Sí

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Elección al Senado de Rio Grande do Sul: 1er lugar" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 13 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Daniela Mulheres Socialistas" con 25%, seguido de "Manuela D'Ávila" con 24%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 25¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 25% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"Elección al Senado de Rio Grande do Sul: 1er lugar" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Aug 17, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "Elección al Senado de Rio Grande do Sul: 1er lugar", explora los 13 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Elección al Senado de Rio Grande do Sul: 1er lugar" es "Daniela Mulheres Socialistas" con 25%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 25% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Manuela D'Ávila" con 24%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Elección al Senado de Rio Grande do Sul: 1er lugar" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.