**Recent public statements and polling trends indicate that Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit and Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party are positioned to contest Israel’s October 27, 2026, Knesset elections on separate lists.** Ben-Gvir has repeatedly declared that any joint slate is “final and complete” and off the table under all circumstances, including after Prime Minister Netanyahu’s late-August public appeals for unity to prevent right-wing vote fragmentation. He has framed a merger as electorally costly for his party (polls project a loss of several seats due to turnout effects) and has instead floated alternatives such as Smotrich securing a reserved Likud slot or aligning with other small right-wing factions. Smotrich has signaled greater openness to technical cooperation, but no agreement has materialized. Current surveys reinforce the separation: Otzma Yehudit consistently clears the threshold with 6–8 seats when running alone, while Religious Zionist Party support hovers near or below it amid competition from newer entrants like Ofer Winter’s People of Israel list targeting overlapping religious and settlement voters. Netanyahu and Likud have criticized Ben-Gvir’s stance as risking the broader right-wing bloc, yet the explicit rejection and absence of negotiations in the final weeks before candidate-list deadlines have solidified trader expectations against a joint run. Historical precedent of their 2022 technical merger followed by an immediate split further contextualizes the current dynamics.