US-Iran direct talks in Pakistan collapsed on April 12 after 21 hours of negotiations, prompting President Trump to impose a naval blockade on Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz to compel concessions, while refusing to renew a temporary oil sanctions waiver expiring April 14. This follows a fragile two-week ceasefire agreed April 8 amid the ongoing war that began in late February, with the truce set to expire around April 22 absent extension. Pakistani mediation continues, with a delegation in Tehran and reports of indirect discussions toward a framework agreement on sanctions relief, nuclear limits, and regional de-escalation; however, sticking points include Israel's Lebanon operations and Iran's demands for asset unfreezing. Traders weigh blockade pressures against diplomatic momentum for a potential deal before escalation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Acuerdo de paz permanente entre Estados Unidos e Irán por...?
¿Acuerdo de paz permanente entre Estados Unidos e Irán por...?
$8,190,439 Vol.
22 abr 2026
22 de abril
17%
30 de abril
38%
31 de mayo
60%
30 de junio
68%
$8,190,439 Vol.
22 de abril
$5,435,376 Vol.
17%
30 de abril
$1,519,815 Vol.
38%
31 de mayo
$998,999 Vol.
60%
30 de junio
$242,294 Vol.
68%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US-Iran direct talks in Pakistan collapsed on April 12 after 21 hours of negotiations, prompting President Trump to impose a naval blockade on Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz to compel concessions, while refusing to renew a temporary oil sanctions waiver expiring April 14. This follows a fragile two-week ceasefire agreed April 8 amid the ongoing war that began in late February, with the truce set to expire around April 22 absent extension. Pakistani mediation continues, with a delegation in Tehran and reports of indirect discussions toward a framework agreement on sanctions relief, nuclear limits, and regional de-escalation; however, sticking points include Israel's Lebanon operations and Iran's demands for asset unfreezing. Traders weigh blockade pressures against diplomatic momentum for a potential deal before escalation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ET
Volumen
$8,190,439Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US-Iran direct talks in Pakistan collapsed on April 12 after 21 hours of negotiations, prompting President Trump to impose a naval blockade on Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz to compel concessions, while refusing to renew a temporary oil sanctions waiver expiring April 14. This follows a fragile two-week ceasefire agreed April 8 amid the ongoing war that began in late February, with the truce set to expire around April 22 absent extension. Pakistani mediation continues, with a delegation in Tehran and reports of indirect discussions toward a framework agreement on sanctions relief, nuclear limits, and regional de-escalation; however, sticking points include Israel's Lebanon operations and Iran's demands for asset unfreezing. Traders weigh blockade pressures against diplomatic momentum for a potential deal before escalation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$8,190,439Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Iran direct talks in Pakistan collapsed on April 12 after 21 hours of negotiations, prompting President Trump to impose a naval blockade on Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz to compel concessions, while refusing to renew a temporary oil sanctions waiver expiring April 14. This follows a fragile two-week ceasefire agreed April 8 amid the ongoing war that began in late February, with the truce set to expire around April 22 absent extension. Pakistani mediation continues, with a delegation in Tehran and reports of indirect discussions toward a framework agreement on sanctions relief, nuclear limits, and regional de-escalation; however, sticking points include Israel's Lebanon operations and Iran's demands for asset unfreezing. Traders weigh blockade pressures against diplomatic momentum for a potential deal before escalation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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