The Republican Party holds a 71% implied probability in the VA-05 House race due to the district's R+6 Partisan Voter Index and its consistent support for GOP candidates, including a 12-point Trump margin in 2024. Incumbent John McGuire benefits from this structural advantage heading into the November 3, 2026 general election, with primaries set for August 4. Democratic contenders, led by former Representative Tom Perriello in their primary, face an uphill path in the solidly Republican-leaning central Virginia seat. Nonpartisan race ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato classify the contest as Solid or Likely Republican, reflecting limited recent polling shifts or major developments that would narrow the gap.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoVA-05 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
VA-05 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$55,468 Vol.
$55,468 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
72%
Partido Demócrata
26%
$55,468 Vol.
$55,468 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
$26,615 Vol.
72%
Partido Demócrata
$28,853 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Republican Party holds a 71% implied probability in the VA-05 House race due to the district's R+6 Partisan Voter Index and its consistent support for GOP candidates, including a 12-point Trump margin in 2024. Incumbent John McGuire benefits from this structural advantage heading into the November 3, 2026 general election, with primaries set for August 4. Democratic contenders, led by former Representative Tom Perriello in their primary, face an uphill path in the solidly Republican-leaning central Virginia seat. Nonpartisan race ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato classify the contest as Solid or Likely Republican, reflecting limited recent polling shifts or major developments that would narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volumen
$55,468Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Republican Party holds a 71% implied probability in the VA-05 House race due to the district's R+6 Partisan Voter Index and its consistent support for GOP candidates, including a 12-point Trump margin in 2024. Incumbent John McGuire benefits from this structural advantage heading into the November 3, 2026 general election, with primaries set for August 4. Democratic contenders, led by former Representative Tom Perriello in their primary, face an uphill path in the solidly Republican-leaning central Virginia seat. Nonpartisan race ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato classify the contest as Solid or Likely Republican, reflecting limited recent polling shifts or major developments that would narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$55,468Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Republican Party holds a 71% implied probability in the VA-05 House race due to the district's R+6 Partisan Voter Index and its consistent support for GOP candidates, including a 12-point Trump margin in 2024. Incumbent John McGuire benefits from this structural advantage heading into the November 3, 2026 general election, with primaries set for August 4. Democratic contenders, led by former Representative Tom Perriello in their primary, face an uphill path in the solidly Republican-leaning central Virginia seat. Nonpartisan race ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato classify the contest as Solid or Likely Republican, reflecting limited recent polling shifts or major developments that would narrow the gap.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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