**Tight U.S. cattle supplies, with the national herd at multi-decade lows near 86.2 million head and beef cows at roughly 28.5 million (lowest since 1971), remain the dominant driver of elevated ground beef prices near $6.89 per pound in July 2026.** Persistent drought, high feed costs (corn near $4.96 per bushel), and slow herd rebuilding have constrained domestic production, with USDA projecting 2026 beef output down about 3-4% year-over-year and retail beef prices up roughly 9-10%. Strong consumer demand has supported these levels despite broader grocery inflation. Recent policy shifts, including the Trump administration’s 90-day duty-free import waiver for up to 300,000 metric tons of lean trimmings effective September 1, 2026, aim to ease ground-beef-specific pressure, though analysts expect only modest price relief given transmission lags and limited volume. Traders monitor upcoming cattle inventory reports, seasonal demand, and any further border or trade developments for signals on whether prices sustain records or moderate into year-end.