Market icon
Economía·Indicadores Macro

¿La carne molida llegará a __ en 2026?

Market icon
Economía·Indicadores Macro

¿La carne molida llegará a __ en 2026?

NUEVO
31 dic 2026
Polymarket

$12 Vol.

Polymarket

$7.000+

$1 Vol.

62%

$8.000+

$4 Vol.

39%

$9.000+

$3 Vol.

31%

$10.000+

$3 Vol.

29%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the figure for "Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average" reaches or exceeds the listed figure for any month of 2026 as published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for any month of 2026 is released by the scheduled date for the January 2027 CPI release, this market will resolve according to the data for 2026 already available at that time. The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Persistently tight U.S. cattle supplies, at 75-year lows following years of herd liquidation, have driven retail ground beef prices to a near-record average of $6.74 per pound in February 2026 per BLS data, up 22% year-over-year. USDA's February Food Price Outlook forecasts beef prices rising 5.5% in 2026 (prediction interval -2.7% to 14.4%), with production dipping to 25.81 billion pounds amid sluggish rebuilding and robust lean imports supporting ground beef blends. The March 20 Cattle on Feed report revealed 11.55 million head on feedlots—slightly below year-ago levels—while February placements rose 4%, signaling ongoing supply constraints against resilient demand. Polymarket traders' consensus prices in supply-demand imbalances; key catalysts include April BLS March pricing release, monthly WASDE reports, and summer grilling season demand.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the figure for "Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average" reaches or exceeds the listed figure for any month of 2026 as published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for any month of 2026 is released by the scheduled date for the January 2027 CPI release, this market will resolve according to the data for 2026 already available at that time.

The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volumen
$12
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Apr 3, 2026, 11:10 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the figure for "Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average" reaches or exceeds the listed figure for any month of 2026 as published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for any month of 2026 is released by the scheduled date for the January 2027 CPI release, this market will resolve according to the data for 2026 already available at that time. The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the figure for "Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average" reaches or exceeds the listed figure for any month of 2026 as published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for any month of 2026 is released by the scheduled date for the January 2027 CPI release, this market will resolve according to the data for 2026 already available at that time. The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Persistently tight U.S. cattle supplies, at 75-year lows following years of herd liquidation, have driven retail ground beef prices to a near-record average of $6.74 per pound in February 2026 per BLS data, up 22% year-over-year. USDA's February Food Price Outlook forecasts beef prices rising 5.5% in 2026 (prediction interval -2.7% to 14.4%), with production dipping to 25.81 billion pounds amid sluggish rebuilding and robust lean imports supporting ground beef blends. The March 20 Cattle on Feed report revealed 11.55 million head on feedlots—slightly below year-ago levels—while February placements rose 4%, signaling ongoing supply constraints against resilient demand. Polymarket traders' consensus prices in supply-demand imbalances; key catalysts include April BLS March pricing release, monthly WASDE reports, and summer grilling season demand.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the figure for "Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average" reaches or exceeds the listed figure for any month of 2026 as published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for any month of 2026 is released by the scheduled date for the January 2027 CPI release, this market will resolve according to the data for 2026 already available at that time.

The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volumen
$12
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Apr 3, 2026, 11:10 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the figure for "Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average" reaches or exceeds the listed figure for any month of 2026 as published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for any month of 2026 is released by the scheduled date for the January 2027 CPI release, this market will resolve according to the data for 2026 already available at that time. The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿La carne molida llegará a __ en 2026?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 4 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "$7.000+" con 62%, seguido de "$8.000+" con 40%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 62¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 62% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"¿La carne molida llegará a __ en 2026?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Apr 3, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "¿La carne molida llegará a __ en 2026?", explora los 4 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿La carne molida llegará a __ en 2026?" es "$7.000+" con 62%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 62% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "$8.000+" con 40%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿La carne molida llegará a __ en 2026?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.