Current trader equilibrium at 50% for Super Typhoon Dolphin making landfall in Japan stems primarily from substantial spread in forecast guidance on the storm’s forward speed and precise steering after it passes the Ryukyu Islands. Official Joint Typhoon Warning Center and Japan Meteorological Agency analyses show the system, currently weakening amid an eyewall replacement cycle and moderate northerly shear, will track west-northwest along the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge. Faster ECMWF solutions keep a stronger ridge intact, while slower GFS runs allow greater erosion from an approaching Siberian trough, shifting arrival timing by up to two days and altering whether the large wind field overlaps Japan’s main islands or remains offshore. New model runs and updated intensity forecasts expected within 24–48 hours are likely to narrow this range and move implied probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿El Super Typhoon Dolphin llegará a Japón?
¿El Super Typhoon Dolphin llegará a Japón?
Sí
$38,901 Vol.
$38,901 Vol.
16 ago 2026
Sí
$38,901 Vol.
$38,901 Vol.
16 ago 2026
This market resolves "Yes" if the center of Super Typhoon Dolphin's circulation physically crosses the coastline of any Japanese territory (including Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, and all main islands) on or before August 15, 2026. Resolution is determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the storm over Japanese land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming the storm hitting Japanese territory. The system's classification is determined by the single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing. Once that advisory fixes classification at the time of impact, no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, the market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the market resolves "Yes." A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. In all cases, the classification is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This is a purely geographic criterion: the storm's center must pass over Japanese land, regardless of whether JMA formally designates the event as "landfall" or "passage." The most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing must classify Dolphin as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or higher). If that advisory classifies the system as extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, the crossing does not count and the market will resolve to "No".
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin has been declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed on or before August 15 without having made landfall on Japanese territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.Current trader equilibrium at 50% for Super Typhoon Dolphin making landfall in Japan stems primarily from substantial spread in forecast guidance on the storm’s forward speed and precise steering after it passes the Ryukyu Islands. Official Joint Typhoon Warning Center and Japan Meteorological Agency analyses show the system, currently weakening amid an eyewall replacement cycle and moderate northerly shear, will track west-northwest along the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge. Faster ECMWF solutions keep a stronger ridge intact, while slower GFS runs allow greater erosion from an approaching Siberian trough, shifting arrival timing by up to two days and altering whether the large wind field overlaps Japan’s main islands or remains offshore. New model runs and updated intensity forecasts expected within 24–48 hours are likely to narrow this range and move implied probabilities.
This market resolves "Yes" if the center of Super Typhoon Dolphin's circulation physically crosses the coastline of any Japanese territory (including Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, and all main islands) on or before August 15, 2026. Resolution is determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the storm over Japanese land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming the storm hitting Japanese territory. The system's classification is determined by the single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing. Once that advisory fixes classification at the time of impact, no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, the market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the market resolves "Yes." A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. In all cases, the classification is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This is a purely geographic criterion: the storm's center must pass over Japanese land, regardless of whether JMA formally designates the event as "landfall" or "passage." The most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing must classify Dolphin as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or higher). If that advisory classifies the system as extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, the crossing does not count and the market will resolve to "No".
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin has been declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed on or before August 15 without having made landfall on Japanese territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, the market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the market resolves "Yes." A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. In all cases, the classification is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This is a purely geographic criterion: the storm's center must pass over Japanese land, regardless of whether JMA formally designates the event as "landfall" or "passage." The most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing must classify Dolphin as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or higher). If that advisory classifies the system as extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, the crossing does not count and the market will resolve to "No".
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin has been declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed on or before August 15 without having made landfall on Japanese territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
Mercado abierto: Jul 30, 2026, 11:53 AM ET
Volumen
$38,901Fecha de finalización
16 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 30, 2026, 11:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market resolves "Yes" if the center of Super Typhoon Dolphin's circulation physically crosses the coastline of any Japanese territory (including Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, and all main islands) on or before August 15, 2026. Resolution is determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the storm over Japanese land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming the storm hitting Japanese territory. The system's classification is determined by the single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing. Once that advisory fixes classification at the time of impact, no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, the market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the market resolves "Yes." A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. In all cases, the classification is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This is a purely geographic criterion: the storm's center must pass over Japanese land, regardless of whether JMA formally designates the event as "landfall" or "passage." The most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing must classify Dolphin as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or higher). If that advisory classifies the system as extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, the crossing does not count and the market will resolve to "No".
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin has been declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed on or before August 15 without having made landfall on Japanese territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.Current trader equilibrium at 50% for Super Typhoon Dolphin making landfall in Japan stems primarily from substantial spread in forecast guidance on the storm’s forward speed and precise steering after it passes the Ryukyu Islands. Official Joint Typhoon Warning Center and Japan Meteorological Agency analyses show the system, currently weakening amid an eyewall replacement cycle and moderate northerly shear, will track west-northwest along the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge. Faster ECMWF solutions keep a stronger ridge intact, while slower GFS runs allow greater erosion from an approaching Siberian trough, shifting arrival timing by up to two days and altering whether the large wind field overlaps Japan’s main islands or remains offshore. New model runs and updated intensity forecasts expected within 24–48 hours are likely to narrow this range and move implied probabilities.
This market resolves "Yes" if the center of Super Typhoon Dolphin's circulation physically crosses the coastline of any Japanese territory (including Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, and all main islands) on or before August 15, 2026. Resolution is determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the storm over Japanese land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming the storm hitting Japanese territory. The system's classification is determined by the single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing. Once that advisory fixes classification at the time of impact, no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, the market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the market resolves "Yes." A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. In all cases, the classification is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This is a purely geographic criterion: the storm's center must pass over Japanese land, regardless of whether JMA formally designates the event as "landfall" or "passage." The most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing must classify Dolphin as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or higher). If that advisory classifies the system as extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, the crossing does not count and the market will resolve to "No".
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin has been declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed on or before August 15 without having made landfall on Japanese territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, the market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the market resolves "Yes." A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. In all cases, the classification is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This is a purely geographic criterion: the storm's center must pass over Japanese land, regardless of whether JMA formally designates the event as "landfall" or "passage." The most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing must classify Dolphin as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or higher). If that advisory classifies the system as extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, the crossing does not count and the market will resolve to "No".
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin has been declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed on or before August 15 without having made landfall on Japanese territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
Volumen
$38,901Fecha de finalización
16 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 30, 2026, 11:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Current trader equilibrium at 50% for Super Typhoon Dolphin making landfall in Japan stems primarily from substantial spread in forecast guidance on the storm’s forward speed and precise steering after it passes the Ryukyu Islands. Official Joint Typhoon Warning Center and Japan Meteorological Agency analyses show the system, currently weakening amid an eyewall replacement cycle and moderate northerly shear, will track west-northwest along the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge. Faster ECMWF solutions keep a stronger ridge intact, while slower GFS runs allow greater erosion from an approaching Siberian trough, shifting arrival timing by up to two days and altering whether the large wind field overlaps Japan’s main islands or remains offshore. New model runs and updated intensity forecasts expected within 24–48 hours are likely to narrow this range and move implied probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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