Recent Congressional Budget Office projections estimate the fiscal year 2026 deficit near $1.9–2.1 trillion, comparable to or above the prior year’s level and driven by mandatory spending growth, net interest costs, and the net effects of the 2025 reconciliation measure. Enacted appropriations largely rejected proposed non-defense discretionary reductions, while tariff revenue gains have been partially offset by refunds and lower-than-expected collections. Monthly Treasury data through mid-2026 show year-to-date shortfalls tracking slightly higher than 2025, with no legislative or executive actions yet producing measurable year-over-year deficit compression. These fiscal trajectories underpin traders’ strong consensus against reduction before 2027.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
11% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 dic 2026
Sí
11% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 dic 2026
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.Recent Congressional Budget Office projections estimate the fiscal year 2026 deficit near $1.9–2.1 trillion, comparable to or above the prior year’s level and driven by mandatory spending growth, net interest costs, and the net effects of the 2025 reconciliation measure. Enacted appropriations largely rejected proposed non-defense discretionary reductions, while tariff revenue gains have been partially offset by refunds and lower-than-expected collections. Monthly Treasury data through mid-2026 show year-to-date shortfalls tracking slightly higher than 2025, with no legislative or executive actions yet producing measurable year-over-year deficit compression. These fiscal trajectories underpin traders’ strong consensus against reduction before 2027.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
Mercado abierto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ET
Volumen
$2,497Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.Recent Congressional Budget Office projections estimate the fiscal year 2026 deficit near $1.9–2.1 trillion, comparable to or above the prior year’s level and driven by mandatory spending growth, net interest costs, and the net effects of the 2025 reconciliation measure. Enacted appropriations largely rejected proposed non-defense discretionary reductions, while tariff revenue gains have been partially offset by refunds and lower-than-expected collections. Monthly Treasury data through mid-2026 show year-to-date shortfalls tracking slightly higher than 2025, with no legislative or executive actions yet producing measurable year-over-year deficit compression. These fiscal trajectories underpin traders’ strong consensus against reduction before 2027.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
Volumen
$2,497Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Congressional Budget Office projections estimate the fiscal year 2026 deficit near $1.9–2.1 trillion, comparable to or above the prior year’s level and driven by mandatory spending growth, net interest costs, and the net effects of the 2025 reconciliation measure. Enacted appropriations largely rejected proposed non-defense discretionary reductions, while tariff revenue gains have been partially offset by refunds and lower-than-expected collections. Monthly Treasury data through mid-2026 show year-to-date shortfalls tracking slightly higher than 2025, with no legislative or executive actions yet producing measurable year-over-year deficit compression. These fiscal trajectories underpin traders’ strong consensus against reduction before 2027.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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