The York—Simcoe provincial by-election, scheduled for September 3 following Caroline Mulroney’s June resignation, features Susan Lahey as the Progressive Conservative nominee. Traders assign her a commanding 97.7% implied probability, reflecting the riding’s consistent PC support, Lahey’s profile as an East Gwillimbury councillor and local business owner, and Premier Doug Ford’s direct endorsement. Opposition candidates from the Liberals, NDP, Greens, and smaller parties remain fragmented with minimal polling traction. Factors that could realistically shift outcomes include unusually low turnout, late-breaking local controversies, or coordinated opposition consolidation, though historical patterns and current campaign dynamics favor continuity for the PC candidate.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSusan Lahey 97.6%
Naomi Davison 1.9%
Matt Pearce <1%
Gerald Auger <1%
Susan Lahey
98%
Naomi Davison
2%
Matt Pearce
1%
Gerald Auger
1%
Bobby Nikmard
1%
David Ghobrial
1%
Sean Conroy
1%
Susan Lahey 97.6%
Naomi Davison 1.9%
Matt Pearce <1%
Gerald Auger <1%
Susan Lahey
98%
Naomi Davison
2%
Matt Pearce
1%
Gerald Auger
1%
Bobby Nikmard
1%
David Ghobrial
1%
Sean Conroy
1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 York—Simcoe provincial by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).
Mercado abierto: Aug 20, 2026, 5:47 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 York—Simcoe provincial by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The York—Simcoe provincial by-election, scheduled for September 3 following Caroline Mulroney’s June resignation, features Susan Lahey as the Progressive Conservative nominee. Traders assign her a commanding 97.7% implied probability, reflecting the riding’s consistent PC support, Lahey’s profile as an East Gwillimbury councillor and local business owner, and Premier Doug Ford’s direct endorsement. Opposition candidates from the Liberals, NDP, Greens, and smaller parties remain fragmented with minimal polling traction. Factors that could realistically shift outcomes include unusually low turnout, late-breaking local controversies, or coordinated opposition consolidation, though historical patterns and current campaign dynamics favor continuity for the PC candidate.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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