Incumbent Republican Robert Aderholt's strong primary performance and the Alabama 4th District's consistent Republican lean drive the market's heavy weighting toward the GOP nominee for the November 2026 general election. The rural north-central district has delivered lopsided Republican margins in recent cycles, including Aderholt's near-unopposed 2024 reelection. With both parties' nominees now set following the May primaries, traders see limited pathways for a Democratic upset absent major unforeseen shifts such as a late scandal or significant national realignment favoring the challenger. The structure of the race, including incumbency advantage and voter base stability, underpins the current consensus.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$28,474 거래량
$28,474 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
93%
민주당
4%
$28,474 거래량
$28,474 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
$13,271 거래량
93%
민주당
$15,202 거래량
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Robert Aderholt's strong primary performance and the Alabama 4th District's consistent Republican lean drive the market's heavy weighting toward the GOP nominee for the November 2026 general election. The rural north-central district has delivered lopsided Republican margins in recent cycles, including Aderholt's near-unopposed 2024 reelection. With both parties' nominees now set following the May primaries, traders see limited pathways for a Democratic upset absent major unforeseen shifts such as a late scandal or significant national realignment favoring the challenger. The structure of the race, including incumbency advantage and voter base stability, underpins the current consensus.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
거래량
$28,474종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Robert Aderholt's strong primary performance and the Alabama 4th District's consistent Republican lean drive the market's heavy weighting toward the GOP nominee for the November 2026 general election. The rural north-central district has delivered lopsided Republican margins in recent cycles, including Aderholt's near-unopposed 2024 reelection. With both parties' nominees now set following the May primaries, traders see limited pathways for a Democratic upset absent major unforeseen shifts such as a late scandal or significant national realignment favoring the challenger. The structure of the race, including incumbency advantage and voter base stability, underpins the current consensus.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$28,474종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Robert Aderholt's strong primary performance and the Alabama 4th District's consistent Republican lean drive the market's heavy weighting toward the GOP nominee for the November 2026 general election. The rural north-central district has delivered lopsided Republican margins in recent cycles, including Aderholt's near-unopposed 2024 reelection. With both parties' nominees now set following the May primaries, traders see limited pathways for a Democratic upset absent major unforeseen shifts such as a late scandal or significant national realignment favoring the challenger. The structure of the race, including incumbency advantage and voter base stability, underpins the current consensus.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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