Incumbent Republican Robert Aderholt maintains a commanding position in Alabama’s 4th congressional district due to the seat’s entrenched partisan profile, reflected in its R+33 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent Republican margins exceeding 80 percent in recent cycles. Aderholt, serving since 1997, secured his party’s nomination in the May 2026 primary with 77.6 percent of the vote, while Democratic nominee Amanda Pusczek advanced from a low-turnout primary. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as solid or safe Republican. Limited challenger fundraising and the absence of major polling or late-cycle developments reinforce trader consensus on the outcome, though structural factors such as midterm turnout shifts or unforeseen candidate-specific events could theoretically alter final results on November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAL-04 House Election Winner
AL-04 House Election Winner
$38,101 Vol.
$38,101 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Robert Aderholt (R)
98%
Amanda Pusczek (D)
<1%
$38,101 Vol.
$38,101 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Robert Aderholt (R)
$19,936 Vol.
98%
Amanda Pusczek (D)
$18,164 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Robert Aderholt maintains a commanding position in Alabama’s 4th congressional district due to the seat’s entrenched partisan profile, reflected in its R+33 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent Republican margins exceeding 80 percent in recent cycles. Aderholt, serving since 1997, secured his party’s nomination in the May 2026 primary with 77.6 percent of the vote, while Democratic nominee Amanda Pusczek advanced from a low-turnout primary. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as solid or safe Republican. Limited challenger fundraising and the absence of major polling or late-cycle developments reinforce trader consensus on the outcome, though structural factors such as midterm turnout shifts or unforeseen candidate-specific events could theoretically alter final results on November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$38,101End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Robert Aderholt maintains a commanding position in Alabama’s 4th congressional district due to the seat’s entrenched partisan profile, reflected in its R+33 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent Republican margins exceeding 80 percent in recent cycles. Aderholt, serving since 1997, secured his party’s nomination in the May 2026 primary with 77.6 percent of the vote, while Democratic nominee Amanda Pusczek advanced from a low-turnout primary. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as solid or safe Republican. Limited challenger fundraising and the absence of major polling or late-cycle developments reinforce trader consensus on the outcome, though structural factors such as midterm turnout shifts or unforeseen candidate-specific events could theoretically alter final results on November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$38,101End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Robert Aderholt maintains a commanding position in Alabama’s 4th congressional district due to the seat’s entrenched partisan profile, reflected in its R+33 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent Republican margins exceeding 80 percent in recent cycles. Aderholt, serving since 1997, secured his party’s nomination in the May 2026 primary with 77.6 percent of the vote, while Democratic nominee Amanda Pusczek advanced from a low-turnout primary. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as solid or safe Republican. Limited challenger fundraising and the absence of major polling or late-cycle developments reinforce trader consensus on the outcome, though structural factors such as midterm turnout shifts or unforeseen candidate-specific events could theoretically alter final results on November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions