Alabama's 4th congressional district remains a strongly Republican seat in rural north-central Alabama, where incumbent Robert Aderholt has represented voters since 1997 and secured renomination with roughly 78% of the primary vote in May 2026. The Democratic nominee, Amanda Pusczek, advanced from her primary but faces structural headwinds in a district that has consistently delivered large Republican margins in recent cycles. Trader consensus at 92.5% for the Republican Party reflects these partisan fundamentals, historical election results, and the absence of competitive developments that would narrow the gap. Scenarios that could alter the outcome include a significant national partisan shift before November 3, 2026, or unforeseen issues affecting the incumbent, though such factors have not emerged to date.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$28,474 交易量
$28,474 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
93%
民主党
4%
$28,474 交易量
$28,474 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$13,271 交易量
93%
民主党
$15,202 交易量
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Alabama's 4th congressional district remains a strongly Republican seat in rural north-central Alabama, where incumbent Robert Aderholt has represented voters since 1997 and secured renomination with roughly 78% of the primary vote in May 2026. The Democratic nominee, Amanda Pusczek, advanced from her primary but faces structural headwinds in a district that has consistently delivered large Republican margins in recent cycles. Trader consensus at 92.5% for the Republican Party reflects these partisan fundamentals, historical election results, and the absence of competitive developments that would narrow the gap. Scenarios that could alter the outcome include a significant national partisan shift before November 3, 2026, or unforeseen issues affecting the incumbent, though such factors have not emerged to date.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$28,474结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Alabama's 4th congressional district remains a strongly Republican seat in rural north-central Alabama, where incumbent Robert Aderholt has represented voters since 1997 and secured renomination with roughly 78% of the primary vote in May 2026. The Democratic nominee, Amanda Pusczek, advanced from her primary but faces structural headwinds in a district that has consistently delivered large Republican margins in recent cycles. Trader consensus at 92.5% for the Republican Party reflects these partisan fundamentals, historical election results, and the absence of competitive developments that would narrow the gap. Scenarios that could alter the outcome include a significant national partisan shift before November 3, 2026, or unforeseen issues affecting the incumbent, though such factors have not emerged to date.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$28,474结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Alabama's 4th congressional district remains a strongly Republican seat in rural north-central Alabama, where incumbent Robert Aderholt has represented voters since 1997 and secured renomination with roughly 78% of the primary vote in May 2026. The Democratic nominee, Amanda Pusczek, advanced from her primary but faces structural headwinds in a district that has consistently delivered large Republican margins in recent cycles. Trader consensus at 92.5% for the Republican Party reflects these partisan fundamentals, historical election results, and the absence of competitive developments that would narrow the gap. Scenarios that could alter the outcome include a significant national partisan shift before November 3, 2026, or unforeseen issues affecting the incumbent, though such factors have not emerged to date.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题