Alaska’s August 18, 2026 top-four primary for the at-large U.S. House seat used an open ballot system in which all candidates competed together and the highest vote-getters advanced to the November general election under ranked-choice voting. Incumbent Republican Nick Begich finished first with roughly 45 percent, while independent Bill Hill placed second near 31-33 percent; both cleared the threshold early. Late withdrawals by Democrat Matt Schultz and several trailing candidates then elevated Democrat Eric Hafner and Libertarian Jim McDermott into the final four despite single-digit primary shares. These mechanics, combined with the compressed timeline between primary certification and general-election ballot finalization, shaped trader assessments of which candidates would appear on the November ballot.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$49,132 Vol.
Aug 17, 2026
John Williams
7%
Matthew "Bronco" Williams
2%
Matt Schultz
1%
Gavin Solomon
<1%
$49,132 Vol.
John Williams
$14,308 Vol.
7%
Matthew "Bronco" Williams
$4,881 Vol.
2%
Matt Schultz
$17,136 Vol.
1%
Gavin Solomon
$5,777 Vol.
<1%
The non-partisan primary election for the Alaska At-Large Congressional District is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Representative from Alaska.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for Alaska's At-Large congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the State of Alaska Division of Elections.Alaska’s August 18, 2026 top-four primary for the at-large U.S. House seat used an open ballot system in which all candidates competed together and the highest vote-getters advanced to the November general election under ranked-choice voting. Incumbent Republican Nick Begich finished first with roughly 45 percent, while independent Bill Hill placed second near 31-33 percent; both cleared the threshold early. Late withdrawals by Democrat Matt Schultz and several trailing candidates then elevated Democrat Eric Hafner and Libertarian Jim McDermott into the final four despite single-digit primary shares. These mechanics, combined with the compressed timeline between primary certification and general-election ballot finalization, shaped trader assessments of which candidates would appear on the November ballot.
The non-partisan primary election for the Alaska At-Large Congressional District is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Representative from Alaska.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for Alaska's At-Large congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the State of Alaska Division of Elections.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for Alaska's At-Large congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the State of Alaska Division of Elections.
Market Opened: May 27, 2026, 10:09 AM ET
Volume
$49,132End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
May 27, 2026, 10:09 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The non-partisan primary election for the Alaska At-Large Congressional District is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Representative from Alaska.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for Alaska's At-Large congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the State of Alaska Division of Elections.Alaska’s August 18, 2026 top-four primary for the at-large U.S. House seat used an open ballot system in which all candidates competed together and the highest vote-getters advanced to the November general election under ranked-choice voting. Incumbent Republican Nick Begich finished first with roughly 45 percent, while independent Bill Hill placed second near 31-33 percent; both cleared the threshold early. Late withdrawals by Democrat Matt Schultz and several trailing candidates then elevated Democrat Eric Hafner and Libertarian Jim McDermott into the final four despite single-digit primary shares. These mechanics, combined with the compressed timeline between primary certification and general-election ballot finalization, shaped trader assessments of which candidates would appear on the November ballot.
The non-partisan primary election for the Alaska At-Large Congressional District is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Representative from Alaska.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for Alaska's At-Large congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the State of Alaska Division of Elections.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for Alaska's At-Large congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the State of Alaska Division of Elections.
Volume
$49,132End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
May 27, 2026, 10:09 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Alaska’s August 18, 2026 top-four primary for the at-large U.S. House seat used an open ballot system in which all candidates competed together and the highest vote-getters advanced to the November general election under ranked-choice voting. Incumbent Republican Nick Begich finished first with roughly 45 percent, while independent Bill Hill placed second near 31-33 percent; both cleared the threshold early. Late withdrawals by Democrat Matt Schultz and several trailing candidates then elevated Democrat Eric Hafner and Libertarian Jim McDermott into the final four despite single-digit primary shares. These mechanics, combined with the compressed timeline between primary certification and general-election ballot finalization, shaped trader assessments of which candidates would appear on the November ballot.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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