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icon for Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?
Politics·August 18 Primaries

Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?

icon for Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?
Politics·August 18 Primaries

Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?

$360,949 Vol.

Aug 17, 2026
Polymarket

$360,949 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for Lesil McGuire

Lesil McGuire

$578 Vol.

No

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Gregg Brelsford

$495 Vol.

No

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Jessica Faircloth

$362 Vol.

No

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Destry J. Payne Sr.

$1,915 Vol.

No

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Bill Walker

$3,861 Vol.

No

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Click Bishop

$72,624 Vol.

No

icon for Dave Bronson

Dave Bronson

$20,012 Vol.

Yes

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Adam Crum

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No

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Nancy Dahlstrom

$15,318 Vol.

No

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Edna DeVries

$13,966 Vol.

No

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Matt Heilala

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No

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Shelley Hughes

$4,374 Vol.

No

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Hank Kroll

$2,300 Vol.

No

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James Parkin

$3,210 Vol.

No

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Treg Taylor

$93,231 Vol.

No

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Bernadette Wilson

$20,305 Vol.

Yes

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Tom Begich

$16,852 Vol.

Yes

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Matt Claman

$39,523 Vol.

No

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Bruce Walden

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No

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Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins

$19,201 Vol.

Yes

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of Alaska. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of Alaska. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 Alaska gubernatorial primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the State of Alaska Division of Elections.Alaska’s August 18 top-four primary featured 17 candidates vying to replace term-limited Governor Mike Dunleavy in a nonpartisan contest where the highest vote-getters advance regardless of party to a November ranked-choice general election. Early and ongoing tallies show Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins leading at roughly 22 percent, followed by fellow Democrat Tom Begich near 20 percent, with Republicans Bernadette Wilson and Dave Bronson occupying the next two spots around 10 percent and 8 percent; Republican Treg Taylor sits fifth. The large Republican field produced vote fragmentation that aided the Democratic frontrunners, while late candidate entries, withdrawals, and union endorsements shaped positioning. Final certification and any post-primary dropouts by Aug. 31 could shift the fourth advancer, with traders monitoring absentee ballot counts and disclosure issues for remaining contenders.

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of Alaska.

This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of Alaska. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If no 2026 Alaska gubernatorial primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the State of Alaska Division of Elections.The non-partisan primary election for Governor of Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of Alaska. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of Alaska. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 Alaska gubernatorial primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the State of Alaska Division of Elections.
Volume
$360,949
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:11 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of Alaska. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of Alaska. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 Alaska gubernatorial primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the State of Alaska Division of Elections.Alaska’s August 18 top-four primary featured 17 candidates vying to replace term-limited Governor Mike Dunleavy in a nonpartisan contest where the highest vote-getters advance regardless of party to a November ranked-choice general election. Early and ongoing tallies show Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins leading at roughly 22 percent, followed by fellow Democrat Tom Begich near 20 percent, with Republicans Bernadette Wilson and Dave Bronson occupying the next two spots around 10 percent and 8 percent; Republican Treg Taylor sits fifth. The large Republican field produced vote fragmentation that aided the Democratic frontrunners, while late candidate entries, withdrawals, and union endorsements shaped positioning. Final certification and any post-primary dropouts by Aug. 31 could shift the fourth advancer, with traders monitoring absentee ballot counts and disclosure issues for remaining contenders.

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of Alaska.

This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of Alaska. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If no 2026 Alaska gubernatorial primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the State of Alaska Division of Elections.The non-partisan primary election for Governor of Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of Alaska. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of Alaska. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 Alaska gubernatorial primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the State of Alaska Division of Elections.
Volume
$360,949
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:11 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 20 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Dave Bronson" at 100%, followed by "Bernadette Wilson" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?" has generated $360.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 10, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?," browse the 20 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?" is "Dave Bronson" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Bernadette Wilson" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.