Traders' near-unanimous 98.2% consensus on "No" for Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei arrest stems from the complete absence of any credible criminal allegations, indictments, or investigations by DOJ or other agencies in recent weeks. Public focus remains on Anthropic's ongoing civil disputes with the Pentagon over AI contracts and safeguards, including a productive White House meeting on April 18 amid concerns about the Mythos model, but these are contractual and regulatory matters far removed from criminal liability. No reports of personal misconduct, ethical breaches, or law enforcement scrutiny have surfaced in the past 30 days. While improbable, a sudden high-profile scandal, federal probe announcement, or unforeseen legal development could shift odds before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$157,049 Vol.
$157,049 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$157,049 Vol.
$157,049 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders' near-unanimous 98.2% consensus on "No" for Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei arrest stems from the complete absence of any credible criminal allegations, indictments, or investigations by DOJ or other agencies in recent weeks. Public focus remains on Anthropic's ongoing civil disputes with the Pentagon over AI contracts and safeguards, including a productive White House meeting on April 18 amid concerns about the Mythos model, but these are contractual and regulatory matters far removed from criminal liability. No reports of personal misconduct, ethical breaches, or law enforcement scrutiny have surfaced in the past 30 days. While improbable, a sudden high-profile scandal, federal probe announcement, or unforeseen legal development could shift odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Feb 27, 2026, 6:05 PM ET
Volume
$157,049End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Feb 27, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders' near-unanimous 98.2% consensus on "No" for Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei arrest stems from the complete absence of any credible criminal allegations, indictments, or investigations by DOJ or other agencies in recent weeks. Public focus remains on Anthropic's ongoing civil disputes with the Pentagon over AI contracts and safeguards, including a productive White House meeting on April 18 amid concerns about the Mythos model, but these are contractual and regulatory matters far removed from criminal liability. No reports of personal misconduct, ethical breaches, or law enforcement scrutiny have surfaced in the past 30 days. While improbable, a sudden high-profile scandal, federal probe announcement, or unforeseen legal development could shift odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$157,049End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Feb 27, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders' near-unanimous 98.2% consensus on "No" for Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei arrest stems from the complete absence of any credible criminal allegations, indictments, or investigations by DOJ or other agencies in recent weeks. Public focus remains on Anthropic's ongoing civil disputes with the Pentagon over AI contracts and safeguards, including a productive White House meeting on April 18 amid concerns about the Mythos model, but these are contractual and regulatory matters far removed from criminal liability. No reports of personal misconduct, ethical breaches, or law enforcement scrutiny have surfaced in the past 30 days. While improbable, a sudden high-profile scandal, federal probe announcement, or unforeseen legal development could shift odds before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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