Adam Walton's superior hard-court record and recent momentum drive his 68.5% implied probability as trader consensus favorite against Sebastian Baez in the Miami Open first round. The Australian, ranked around No. 100, boasts a 12-5 hard-court mark this year, including Challenger titles in Phoenix and solid qualifying wins here, contrasting Baez's 2-6 hard-court slump in 2024 as the clay-court specialist (No. 34) labors with a sub-50% career win rate on the surface. No injuries reported for either; their first head-to-head tilts toward Walton's baseline power suiting Miami's faster conditions, though Baez's topspin could test if Walton falters on serve. Odds reflect crowds' nod to Walton's edge in recent form and matchup dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated1st Set
This market will resolve to 'Adam Walton' if Adam Walton advances against Sebastian Baez.
This market will resolve to 'Sebastian Baez' if Sebastian Baez advances against Adam Walton.
If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 18, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/currentResolver
0x65070BE91...1st Set
This market will resolve to 'Adam Walton' if Adam Walton advances against Sebastian Baez.
This market will resolve to 'Sebastian Baez' if Sebastian Baez advances against Adam Walton.
If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 18, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/currentResolver
0x65070BE91...Adam Walton's superior hard-court record and recent momentum drive his 68.5% implied probability as trader consensus favorite against Sebastian Baez in the Miami Open first round. The Australian, ranked around No. 100, boasts a 12-5 hard-court mark this year, including Challenger titles in Phoenix and solid qualifying wins here, contrasting Baez's 2-6 hard-court slump in 2024 as the clay-court specialist (No. 34) labors with a sub-50% career win rate on the surface. No injuries reported for either; their first head-to-head tilts toward Walton's baseline power suiting Miami's faster conditions, though Baez's topspin could test if Walton falters on serve. Odds reflect crowds' nod to Walton's edge in recent form and matchup dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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