**Recent polls for Berlin’s September 20, 2026 Abgeordnetenhaus election show the Greens (Bündnis 90/Die Grünen) polling between 16% and 17%, placing the “Under 17%” outcome at roughly even odds to slightly favored.** Aggregators and the latest surveys (INSA mid-August, Civey, Infratest dimap) put them at approximately 16.6%, below their 18.4% result from 2023 and consistent with a modest long-term decline. Key drivers include persistently low approval for the governing CDU-SPD Senate, limited visibility for Green top candidate Werner Graf, and a crowded four-way race in which the Left (Die Linke) has surged to the lead or near-lead (19–22%), the AfD has gained ground, and the CDU has slipped from its prior dominance. The Greens have recorded only marginal or flat movement in recent months, with some surveys showing small gains offset by others showing stagnation or slight drops. Broader voter dissatisfaction with the current coalition and the absence of a clear Green-specific momentum have kept their support compressed near the 17% threshold. Trader consensus at 60% for “Under” therefore reflects the weight of live polling data indicating the party is more likely to finish at or below 16–17% than comfortably above it, absent a late campaign shift.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOver
40% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
Over
40% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Grüne wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Grüne wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).**Recent polls for Berlin’s September 20, 2026 Abgeordnetenhaus election show the Greens (Bündnis 90/Die Grünen) polling between 16% and 17%, placing the “Under 17%” outcome at roughly even odds to slightly favored.** Aggregators and the latest surveys (INSA mid-August, Civey, Infratest dimap) put them at approximately 16.6%, below their 18.4% result from 2023 and consistent with a modest long-term decline.
Key drivers include persistently low approval for the governing CDU-SPD Senate, limited visibility for Green top candidate Werner Graf, and a crowded four-way race in which the Left (Die Linke) has surged to the lead or near-lead (19–22%), the AfD has gained ground, and the CDU has slipped from its prior dominance. The Greens have recorded only marginal or flat movement in recent months, with some surveys showing small gains offset by others showing stagnation or slight drops. Broader voter dissatisfaction with the current coalition and the absence of a clear Green-specific momentum have kept their support compressed near the 17% threshold.
Trader consensus at 60% for “Under” therefore reflects the weight of live polling data indicating the party is more likely to finish at or below 16–17% than comfortably above it, absent a late campaign shift.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Grüne wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Grüne wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Grüne wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Grüne wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 2:20 PM ET
Volume
$52End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Grüne wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Grüne wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).**Recent polls for Berlin’s September 20, 2026 Abgeordnetenhaus election show the Greens (Bündnis 90/Die Grünen) polling between 16% and 17%, placing the “Under 17%” outcome at roughly even odds to slightly favored.** Aggregators and the latest surveys (INSA mid-August, Civey, Infratest dimap) put them at approximately 16.6%, below their 18.4% result from 2023 and consistent with a modest long-term decline.
Key drivers include persistently low approval for the governing CDU-SPD Senate, limited visibility for Green top candidate Werner Graf, and a crowded four-way race in which the Left (Die Linke) has surged to the lead or near-lead (19–22%), the AfD has gained ground, and the CDU has slipped from its prior dominance. The Greens have recorded only marginal or flat movement in recent months, with some surveys showing small gains offset by others showing stagnation or slight drops. Broader voter dissatisfaction with the current coalition and the absence of a clear Green-specific momentum have kept their support compressed near the 17% threshold.
Trader consensus at 60% for “Under” therefore reflects the weight of live polling data indicating the party is more likely to finish at or below 16–17% than comfortably above it, absent a late campaign shift.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Grüne wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Grüne wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Grüne wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Grüne wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volume
$52End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent polls for Berlin’s September 20, 2026 Abgeordnetenhaus election show the Greens (Bündnis 90/Die Grünen) polling between 16% and 17%, placing the “Under 17%” outcome at roughly even odds to slightly favored.** Aggregators and the latest surveys (INSA mid-August, Civey, Infratest dimap) put them at approximately 16.6%, below their 18.4% result from 2023 and consistent with a modest long-term decline. Key drivers include persistently low approval for the governing CDU-SPD Senate, limited visibility for Green top candidate Werner Graf, and a crowded four-way race in which the Left (Die Linke) has surged to the lead or near-lead (19–22%), the AfD has gained ground, and the CDU has slipped from its prior dominance. The Greens have recorded only marginal or flat movement in recent months, with some surveys showing small gains offset by others showing stagnation or slight drops. Broader voter dissatisfaction with the current coalition and the absence of a clear Green-specific momentum have kept their support compressed near the 17% threshold. Trader consensus at 60% for “Under” therefore reflects the weight of live polling data indicating the party is more likely to finish at or below 16–17% than comfortably above it, absent a late campaign shift.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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