Recent polling averages place the CDU at approximately 20 percent support, ahead of the SPD at 13-15 percent, with Die Linke leading or tied near 19-22 percent ahead of the September 20, 2026, Abgeordnetenhaus election. This gap has held across INSA, Infratest dimap, and Civey surveys conducted in July and August, reflecting voter shifts away from the junior governing partner. The CDU’s leadership transition to Stefan Evers after Kai Wegner’s withdrawal has coincided with modest gains, while the SPD’s coalition role has not reversed its decline from the prior cycle’s 18.4 percent result. Traders price an 87.5 percent probability that the CDU receives more votes, consistent with the sustained five-point-or-greater margin in head-to-head comparisons and limited remaining campaign time for reversal.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCDU
88% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
88% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling averages place the CDU at approximately 20 percent support, ahead of the SPD at 13-15 percent, with Die Linke leading or tied near 19-22 percent ahead of the September 20, 2026, Abgeordnetenhaus election. This gap has held across INSA, Infratest dimap, and Civey surveys conducted in July and August, reflecting voter shifts away from the junior governing partner. The CDU’s leadership transition to Stefan Evers after Kai Wegner’s withdrawal has coincided with modest gains, while the SPD’s coalition role has not reversed its decline from the prior cycle’s 18.4 percent result. Traders price an 87.5 percent probability that the CDU receives more votes, consistent with the sustained five-point-or-greater margin in head-to-head comparisons and limited remaining campaign time for reversal.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 2:17 PM ET
Volume
$461End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling averages place the CDU at approximately 20 percent support, ahead of the SPD at 13-15 percent, with Die Linke leading or tied near 19-22 percent ahead of the September 20, 2026, Abgeordnetenhaus election. This gap has held across INSA, Infratest dimap, and Civey surveys conducted in July and August, reflecting voter shifts away from the junior governing partner. The CDU’s leadership transition to Stefan Evers after Kai Wegner’s withdrawal has coincided with modest gains, while the SPD’s coalition role has not reversed its decline from the prior cycle’s 18.4 percent result. Traders price an 87.5 percent probability that the CDU receives more votes, consistent with the sustained five-point-or-greater margin in head-to-head comparisons and limited remaining campaign time for reversal.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volume
$461End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling averages place the CDU at approximately 20 percent support, ahead of the SPD at 13-15 percent, with Die Linke leading or tied near 19-22 percent ahead of the September 20, 2026, Abgeordnetenhaus election. This gap has held across INSA, Infratest dimap, and Civey surveys conducted in July and August, reflecting voter shifts away from the junior governing partner. The CDU’s leadership transition to Stefan Evers after Kai Wegner’s withdrawal has coincided with modest gains, while the SPD’s coalition role has not reversed its decline from the prior cycle’s 18.4 percent result. Traders price an 87.5 percent probability that the CDU receives more votes, consistent with the sustained five-point-or-greater margin in head-to-head comparisons and limited remaining campaign time for reversal.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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