Recent polling averages position Die Linke ahead of the AfD in the September 20, 2026 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election, with Linke typically at 19–21% and AfD at 17–19% across INSA, Infratest dimap, and Civey surveys through mid-August. Linke has recorded steady gains since early 2026, driven by emphasis on housing costs and membership growth to roughly 18,000—the largest in the city-state—while the AfD has risen from its 2023 baseline but remains constrained by its isolation from potential coalition partners. Earlier July fluctuations saw the AfD briefly lead one INSA sample, yet subsequent fieldwork has reinforced Linke’s narrow edge in direct vote-share comparisons. These patterns underpin the current trader consensus favoring Linke receiving more votes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLinke
72% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
Linke
72% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Linke” if Linke wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Linke in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Linke and AfD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling averages position Die Linke ahead of the AfD in the September 20, 2026 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election, with Linke typically at 19–21% and AfD at 17–19% across INSA, Infratest dimap, and Civey surveys through mid-August. Linke has recorded steady gains since early 2026, driven by emphasis on housing costs and membership growth to roughly 18,000—the largest in the city-state—while the AfD has risen from its 2023 baseline but remains constrained by its isolation from potential coalition partners. Earlier July fluctuations saw the AfD briefly lead one INSA sample, yet subsequent fieldwork has reinforced Linke’s narrow edge in direct vote-share comparisons. These patterns underpin the current trader consensus favoring Linke receiving more votes.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Linke” if Linke wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Linke in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Linke and AfD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “Linke” if Linke wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Linke in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Linke and AfD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 2:17 PM ET
Volume
$82End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Linke” if Linke wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Linke in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Linke and AfD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling averages position Die Linke ahead of the AfD in the September 20, 2026 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election, with Linke typically at 19–21% and AfD at 17–19% across INSA, Infratest dimap, and Civey surveys through mid-August. Linke has recorded steady gains since early 2026, driven by emphasis on housing costs and membership growth to roughly 18,000—the largest in the city-state—while the AfD has risen from its 2023 baseline but remains constrained by its isolation from potential coalition partners. Earlier July fluctuations saw the AfD briefly lead one INSA sample, yet subsequent fieldwork has reinforced Linke’s narrow edge in direct vote-share comparisons. These patterns underpin the current trader consensus favoring Linke receiving more votes.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Linke” if Linke wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Linke in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Linke and AfD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “Linke” if Linke wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Linke in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Linke and AfD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volume
$82End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling averages position Die Linke ahead of the AfD in the September 20, 2026 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election, with Linke typically at 19–21% and AfD at 17–19% across INSA, Infratest dimap, and Civey surveys through mid-August. Linke has recorded steady gains since early 2026, driven by emphasis on housing costs and membership growth to roughly 18,000—the largest in the city-state—while the AfD has risen from its 2023 baseline but remains constrained by its isolation from potential coalition partners. Earlier July fluctuations saw the AfD briefly lead one INSA sample, yet subsequent fieldwork has reinforced Linke’s narrow edge in direct vote-share comparisons. These patterns underpin the current trader consensus favoring Linke receiving more votes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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