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Politics·Cabo Verde

Cape Verde Presidential Election Winner

icon for Cape Verde Presidential Election Winner
Politics·Cabo Verde

Cape Verde Presidential Election Winner

José Maria Neves 71%

Casimiro de Pina 12%

Janine Lélis 10%

Joana Rosa 7.0%

Polymarket
NEW

José Maria Neves 71%

Casimiro de Pina 12%

Janine Lélis 10%

Joana Rosa 7.0%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for José Maria Neves

José Maria Neves

$2,827 Vol.

71%

icon for Casimiro de Pina

Casimiro de Pina

$394 Vol.

12%

icon for Janine Lélis

Janine Lélis

$611 Vol.

13%

icon for Joana Rosa

Joana Rosa

$485 Vol.

15%

icon for Péricles Tavares

Péricles Tavares

$386 Vol.

7%

icon for Milton Paiva

Milton Paiva

$394 Vol.

3%

icon for Fernando Delgado

Fernando Delgado

$355 Vol.

1%

Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in Cape Verde on November 15, 2026, with a second round to be held on November 29, 2026 if no candidate receives a majority of valid votes. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Cape Verde presidential elections. Any interim or caretaker President will not qualify. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of the Cape Verde, including the National Commission of Elections (https://cne.cv/).José Maria Neves, the incumbent president from the PAICV party, holds a clear lead in trader positioning for the November 15, 2026, Cape Verdean presidential election, reflecting his 2021 first-round victory and the PAICV's parliamentary win in May 2026. This outcome follows the party's shift to a stronger legislative position under prime minister-designate Francisco Carvalho, creating cohabitation dynamics with the prior MpD government. Declared MpD challengers Joana Rosa and Janine Lélis trail as the main opposition figures, with other listed candidates remaining at minimal levels amid limited declarations or polling visibility. Recent months have seen no major scandals, candidate shifts, or diplomatic events altering the baseline, leaving structural advantages like incumbency and recent electoral momentum as the dominant drivers of current market consensus.

Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in Cape Verde on November 15, 2026, with a second round to be held on November 29, 2026 if no candidate receives a majority of valid votes.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Cape Verde presidential elections. Any interim or caretaker President will not qualify.

This market includes any potential second round.

If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of the Cape Verde, including the National Commission of Elections (https://cne.cv/).
Volume
$5,451
End Date
Nov 15, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 8:33 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in Cape Verde on November 15, 2026, with a second round to be held on November 29, 2026 if no candidate receives a majority of valid votes. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Cape Verde presidential elections. Any interim or caretaker President will not qualify. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of the Cape Verde, including the National Commission of Elections (https://cne.cv/).
Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in Cape Verde on November 15, 2026, with a second round to be held on November 29, 2026 if no candidate receives a majority of valid votes. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Cape Verde presidential elections. Any interim or caretaker President will not qualify. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of the Cape Verde, including the National Commission of Elections (https://cne.cv/).José Maria Neves, the incumbent president from the PAICV party, holds a clear lead in trader positioning for the November 15, 2026, Cape Verdean presidential election, reflecting his 2021 first-round victory and the PAICV's parliamentary win in May 2026. This outcome follows the party's shift to a stronger legislative position under prime minister-designate Francisco Carvalho, creating cohabitation dynamics with the prior MpD government. Declared MpD challengers Joana Rosa and Janine Lélis trail as the main opposition figures, with other listed candidates remaining at minimal levels amid limited declarations or polling visibility. Recent months have seen no major scandals, candidate shifts, or diplomatic events altering the baseline, leaving structural advantages like incumbency and recent electoral momentum as the dominant drivers of current market consensus.

Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in Cape Verde on November 15, 2026, with a second round to be held on November 29, 2026 if no candidate receives a majority of valid votes.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Cape Verde presidential elections. Any interim or caretaker President will not qualify.

This market includes any potential second round.

If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of the Cape Verde, including the National Commission of Elections (https://cne.cv/).
Volume
$5,451
End Date
Nov 15, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 8:33 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in Cape Verde on November 15, 2026, with a second round to be held on November 29, 2026 if no candidate receives a majority of valid votes. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Cape Verde presidential elections. Any interim or caretaker President will not qualify. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of the Cape Verde, including the National Commission of Elections (https://cne.cv/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Cape Verde Presidential Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "José Maria Neves" at 71%, followed by "Joana Rosa" at 15%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 71¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 71% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Cape Verde Presidential Election Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 11, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Cape Verde Presidential Election Winner," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Cape Verde Presidential Election Winner" is "José Maria Neves" at 71%, meaning the market assigns a 71% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Joana Rosa" at 15%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Cape Verde Presidential Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.