Trader consensus prices a draw at 59% implied probability for Round 11 of the FIDE Candidates 2026 Open, reflecting the solid defensive play typical in classical chess among elites, especially with tournament leader Javokhir Sindarov holding Black after his record-breaking sixth win over Praggnanandhaa in Round 10 to reach 8/10. Fabiano Caruana, third at 5 points with White pieces and superior Elo (2795 vs. Sindarov's 2745), commands 25.5% as challengers often seek revenge—having lost to Sindarov in Round 4—despite recent shaky form including a loss to Giri. Sindarov's 10% win odds acknowledge Black's typical disadvantage amid his dominant streak, with four rounds left tightening the race.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIf Fabiano Caruana wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match has been completed.
If the match is canceled entirely, with no make-up match, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Market Opened: Apr 9, 2026, 10:01 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://lichess.org/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If Fabiano Caruana wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match has been completed.
If the match is canceled entirely, with no make-up match, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Market Opened: Apr 9, 2026, 10:01 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://lichess.org/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus prices a draw at 59% implied probability for Round 11 of the FIDE Candidates 2026 Open, reflecting the solid defensive play typical in classical chess among elites, especially with tournament leader Javokhir Sindarov holding Black after his record-breaking sixth win over Praggnanandhaa in Round 10 to reach 8/10. Fabiano Caruana, third at 5 points with White pieces and superior Elo (2795 vs. Sindarov's 2745), commands 25.5% as challengers often seek revenge—having lost to Sindarov in Round 4—despite recent shaky form including a loss to Giri. Sindarov's 10% win odds acknowledge Black's typical disadvantage amid his dominant streak, with four rounds left tightening the race.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated

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