Recent high-resolution model runs from sources including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and national meteorological services show a stable high-pressure ridge over central Turkey maintaining clear skies and light winds through September 11. These conditions favor strong daytime solar heating over Ankara’s elevated, inland terrain, with afternoon maxima consistently projected at 31–32 °C and negligible precipitation risk. Ensemble spreads remain narrow, supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward those two outcomes while leaving modest probability for minor deviations from local boundary-layer effects or slight model timing differences. Updated guidance issued in the past 24 hours has shown little shift, reinforcing trader consensus around the upper end of the typical early-September climatological range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Ankara on September 11?
Highest temperature in Ankara on September 11?
31°C 59%
32°C 18%
30°C 16%
29°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
3%
29°C
4%
30°C
16%
31°C
59%
32°C
18%
33°C
3%
34°C or higher
1%
31°C 59%
32°C 18%
30°C 16%
29°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
24°C or below
$125 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$179 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$185 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$120 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$0 Vol.
3%
29°C
$52 Vol.
4%
30°C
$74 Vol.
16%
31°C
$462 Vol.
59%
32°C
$319 Vol.
18%
33°C
$33 Vol.
3%
34°C or higher
$64 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent high-resolution model runs from sources including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and national meteorological services show a stable high-pressure ridge over central Turkey maintaining clear skies and light winds through September 11. These conditions favor strong daytime solar heating over Ankara’s elevated, inland terrain, with afternoon maxima consistently projected at 31–32 °C and negligible precipitation risk. Ensemble spreads remain narrow, supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward those two outcomes while leaving modest probability for minor deviations from local boundary-layer effects or slight model timing differences. Updated guidance issued in the past 24 hours has shown little shift, reinforcing trader consensus around the upper end of the typical early-September climatological range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,613End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent high-resolution model runs from sources including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and national meteorological services show a stable high-pressure ridge over central Turkey maintaining clear skies and light winds through September 11. These conditions favor strong daytime solar heating over Ankara’s elevated, inland terrain, with afternoon maxima consistently projected at 31–32 °C and negligible precipitation risk. Ensemble spreads remain narrow, supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward those two outcomes while leaving modest probability for minor deviations from local boundary-layer effects or slight model timing differences. Updated guidance issued in the past 24 hours has shown little shift, reinforcing trader consensus around the upper end of the typical early-September climatological range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,613End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent high-resolution model runs from sources including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and national meteorological services show a stable high-pressure ridge over central Turkey maintaining clear skies and light winds through September 11. These conditions favor strong daytime solar heating over Ankara’s elevated, inland terrain, with afternoon maxima consistently projected at 31–32 °C and negligible precipitation risk. Ensemble spreads remain narrow, supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward those two outcomes while leaving modest probability for minor deviations from local boundary-layer effects or slight model timing differences. Updated guidance issued in the past 24 hours has shown little shift, reinforcing trader consensus around the upper end of the typical early-September climatological range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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