Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 29°C in Chengdu on May 4, 2026, at nearly 100% implied probability, driven by official observations from Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport station—the market's resolution source via Wunderground—recording mid-afternoon peaks near 28.6–29°C under mostly sunny skies and a persistent high-pressure ridge enhancing solar heating. China Meteorological Administration reports confirm this aligns with above-normal early-May warming in Chengdu's humid subtropical climate, where historical averages hover around 26°C, bolstered by ECMWF and GFS model consensus for a 29°C cap following yesterday's cooler 23°C high. As evening cooling sets in past peak diurnal heating (typically 2–4 p.m. local time), higher readings are improbable; final data finalizes at midnight, with post-finalization revisions ignored, though an unlikely measurement adjustment before then could shift outcomes.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Chengdu on May 4?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on May 4?
29°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$87,104 Vol.
$87,104 Vol.
4 mag 2026
21°C or below
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
Yes
30°C
No
31°C or higher
No
29°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$87,104 Vol.
$87,104 Vol.
4 mag 2026
21°C or below
$1,384 Vol.
No
22°C
$2,476 Vol.
No
23°C
$2,353 Vol.
No
24°C
$2,251 Vol.
No
25°C
$6,604 Vol.
No
26°C
$12,354 Vol.
No
27°C
$8,956 Vol.
No
28°C
$21,688 Vol.
No
29°C
$8,518 Vol.
Yes
30°C
$10,258 Vol.
No
31°C or higher
$10,262 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 29°C in Chengdu on May 4, 2026, at nearly 100% implied probability, driven by official observations from Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport station—the market's resolution source via Wunderground—recording mid-afternoon peaks near 28.6–29°C under mostly sunny skies and a persistent high-pressure ridge enhancing solar heating. China Meteorological Administration reports confirm this aligns with above-normal early-May warming in Chengdu's humid subtropical climate, where historical averages hover around 26°C, bolstered by ECMWF and GFS model consensus for a 29°C cap following yesterday's cooler 23°C high. As evening cooling sets in past peak diurnal heating (typically 2–4 p.m. local time), higher readings are improbable; final data finalizes at midnight, with post-finalization revisions ignored, though an unlikely measurement adjustment before then could shift outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
Volume
$87,104Data di fine
4 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 29°C in Chengdu on May 4, 2026, at nearly 100% implied probability, driven by official observations from Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport station—the market's resolution source via Wunderground—recording mid-afternoon peaks near 28.6–29°C under mostly sunny skies and a persistent high-pressure ridge enhancing solar heating. China Meteorological Administration reports confirm this aligns with above-normal early-May warming in Chengdu's humid subtropical climate, where historical averages hover around 26°C, bolstered by ECMWF and GFS model consensus for a 29°C cap following yesterday's cooler 23°C high. As evening cooling sets in past peak diurnal heating (typically 2–4 p.m. local time), higher readings are improbable; final data finalizes at midnight, with post-finalization revisions ignored, though an unlikely measurement adjustment before then could shift outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$87,104Data di fine
4 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 29°C in Chengdu on May 4, 2026, at nearly 100% implied probability, driven by official observations from Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport station—the market's resolution source via Wunderground—recording mid-afternoon peaks near 28.6–29°C under mostly sunny skies and a persistent high-pressure ridge enhancing solar heating. China Meteorological Administration reports confirm this aligns with above-normal early-May warming in Chengdu's humid subtropical climate, where historical averages hover around 26°C, bolstered by ECMWF and GFS model consensus for a 29°C cap following yesterday's cooler 23°C high. As evening cooling sets in past peak diurnal heating (typically 2–4 p.m. local time), higher readings are improbable; final data finalizes at midnight, with post-finalization revisions ignored, though an unlikely measurement adjustment before then could shift outcomes.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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